THE contest to succeed Governor Seyi Makinde is taking shape, with the All Progressives Congress (APC)’s Sharafadeen Alli, Allied People’s Movement (APM)’s Abimbola Adekanmbi, Accord’s Oriyomi Hamzat and 13 other candidates preparing for a high-stakes battle over the future of Oyo State.
The race will test Makinde’s ability to transfer his political influence to a successor, the APC’s determination to reclaim power and the capacity of smaller parties to challenge the established political order.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released its final list of 16 governorship candidates on October 10, 2026, formally identifying the contenders for the contest to occupy the Agodi Government House after the 2027 general election.
What initially appeared to be a familiar contest between the ruling political establishment and an opposition seeking to dislodge it has developed into a more complicated struggle involving party realignments, competing ambitions, questions of succession, political loyalties and the search for a credible alternative.
At the centre of the unfolding drama is Makinde, who is approaching the end of his second term and cannot seek another consecutive term as governor. His political future, including his presidential ambition on the platform of the APM, has added a national dimension to the struggle for control of Oyo State.
Yet, beyond the personalities and party platforms, the election will ultimately test whether political popularity can be transferred, whether a divided opposition can unite around a common objective and whether voters will prioritise continuity, change or a fresh political direction.
The succession question: Can Makinde determine what comes next?
For Makinde, the 2027 election presents a significant political test: whether the influence accumulated over eight years in office can help determine who succeeds him.
Since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999, Oyo State has developed a reputation for rejecting the preferred successors of outgoing governors. Former Governor Abiola Ajimobi failed to secure victory for his preferred candidate, Adebayo Adelabu, in 2019, when Makinde defeated him. Makinde now faces the challenge of avoiding a similar outcome as he prepares to leave office.
His preferred successor is Abimbola Adekanmbi, a former commissioner for finance in the state, who is contesting under the APM rather than the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the platform on which Makinde won the governorship in 2019 and 2023.
The decision to pursue the succession project through the APM has altered the political calculations in the state. It raises questions about how much of the existing governing structure will move with the governor, how effectively the new platform can establish itself across Oyo’s 33 local government areas and whether voters will view Adekanmbi as an independent candidate or principally as the choice of the outgoing administration.
The challenge is not simply to present a candidate with experience in government. It is to convert the governor’s political network, record and electoral support into a winning coalition under a different party identity.
Adekanmbi has presented himself as a candidate who can build on the administration’s record while maintaining his own political identity.
His campaign will need to persuade voters that continuity offers tangible benefits, particularly in infrastructure, education, healthcare, economic development and governance.
At the same time, the APM must demonstrate that it can compete beyond the political influence of the governor who has made it central to his succession plans.
Makinde’s presidential ambition could further complicate the exercise. A successful transfer of power in Oyo would strengthen his political standing nationally, while a defeat for his preferred successor could expose the limitations of his influence beyond his own tenure.
Alli and the APC: The challenge of turning opposition into victory
Senator Alli enters the race as the APC’s governorship candidate, with the party seeking to return to power in Oyo after eight years in opposition.
His challenge is to unite competing party interests, consolidate grassroots support and convince voters that his administration would offer a credible alternative to the outgoing government.
The APC presents one of the strongest organisational challenges to Makinde’s succession project. Its national platform, established political network and presence across the state’s three senatorial districts give it a substantial base from which to campaign.
Alli, who represents Oyo South Senatorial District in the Senate, has outlined priorities including education, healthcare, agriculture, infrastructure, security, economic empowerment and local government administration.
His campaign platform also emphasises inclusive governance and measurable public service delivery.
However, the APC’s principal challenge is internal cohesion.
The contest for the party’s governorship ticket brought several prominent figures into competition, including former Minister of Power Adebayo Adelabu and other influential politicians.
Although Alli emerged as the candidate, the ability to bring the various tendencies together behind him will be a critical determinant of the party’s prospects.
Party unity cannot be measured merely by public endorsements or appearances at campaign events. It will depend on whether influential leaders deploy their structures, mobilise supporters and work together across local government areas.
Alli must also define his campaign beyond opposition to Makinde. While the incumbent’s record will inevitably feature in the contest, voters will want to know what the senator intends to do differently, how he plans to finance his promises and what measurable improvements residents should expect.
The APC candidate’s performance in the three senatorial districts will be particularly important.
A strong showing in Ibadan does not automatically guarantee success in Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso, Oyo and Ibarapa, where local political interests and candidate appeal can shape voting patterns.
For Alli, therefore, the challenge is twofold: consolidate the APC’s traditional support and attract voters who may be dissatisfied with the current administration but are not automatically committed to the opposition.
Adekambi and the APM: A test of continuity
Adekanmbi, although backed by Makinde’s political camp, his candidacy places continuity, experience in government and the outgoing governor’s political legacy at the centre of the election.
Adekanmbi’s emergence has changed the character of the succession contest.
Rather than remain within the PDP, Makinde’s camp is seeking to establish the APM as the vehicle for its 2027 political project.
His experience in public finance provides a basis for discussing budgeting, revenue generation, expenditure management and economic planning. But experience alone will not settle the election.
His campaign must explain how that experience would translate into improved living standards, better public services and stronger economic opportunities across the state.
The central question is whether voters will regard him as the candidate best placed to sustain the administration’s policies or as a symbol of an outgoing government seeking to retain influence.
Continuity can be an advantage when voters believe an administration has delivered meaningful improvements. It can become a liability when they want a change of direction or associate the government with unresolved problems.
Adekanmbi will consequently need to establish a political identity that extends beyond his relationship with Makinde.
The outgoing governor’s endorsement may provide access to an established political network, but it cannot automatically transfer the personal choices of voters.
The campaign must still earn support in communities where economic pressures, local development needs and individual political loyalties may differ.
Makinde’s political ambition also adds another layer to the equation. If Adekanmbi succeeds, it could strengthen the governor’s influence as he moves towards national politics. If he fails, the result could raise questions about the durability of the political structure built during Makinde’s tenure.
Accord and Oriyomi Hamzat: Can popularity become political power?
Hamzat’s candidacy introduces a prominent media personality into the governorship contest. His challenge is to translate public recognition and his existing support base into the political organisation required to compete across the state.
Hamzat’s presence means the contest cannot be understood solely through the rivalry between the APC and APM.
His profile as a broadcaster gives him a degree of public visibility that many candidates must work hard to establish. Yet, name recognition and electoral strength are not the same thing.
A successful governorship campaign requires more than an audience. It demands ward-level organisation, credible agents, effective coordination, fundraising, a policy programme and the capacity to reach voters across all 33 local government areas.
Hamzat must also demonstrate how his candidacy would address the practical challenges facing residents, from the cost of living and employment to security, education, healthcare and local infrastructure.
Accord’s performance in Oyo will be watched closely because it offers another platform through which voters can express their preferences outside the two leading political camps.
The party’s prospects will depend on its ability to build a statewide coalition rather than rely on visibility concentrated in particular communities or among specific groups of supporters.
Hamzat’s emergence also creates a potential complication for the larger parties. A candidate who attracts voters seeking an alternative could affect the distribution of votes even without becoming the leading contender.
The extent of that influence, however, will depend on campaign organisation, the issues raised during the election and the level of support the candidate can sustain beyond his established audience.
Gbolarumi and the PDP: Rebuilding a traditional political platform
Hazeem Gbolarumi represents the PDP. His candidacy raises questions about the party’s ability to retain its identity and electoral base after the incumbent’s succession project moved to the APM.
The PDP faces a particularly difficult political calculation. It remains an established party in Oyo, with a history of electoral competition and an existing political network. Yet the movement of Makinde’s succession project to the APM creates a challenge for the party’s position in the state.
Gbolarumi’s task will be to show that the PDP remains a viable choice in its own right rather than a party whose electoral relevance depends entirely on the incumbent governor.
That will require a clear message, effective organisation and the ability to appeal to party loyalists as well as voters who may be looking for an alternative to both the APC and APM.
The party’s performance could also influence the wider contest. A well-organised PDP campaign could attract voters who might otherwise gravitate towards another opposition platform, while a weak showing could leave its supporters divided among competing candidates.
The broader issue is whether the PDP can convert its historical presence into a competitive campaign under the changed circumstances of 2027.
ADC, NDC and the other contenders: The wider field
Beyond the four principal names, the other candidates will seek to establish their relevance through distinct political messages, local networks and appeals to voters dissatisfied with the established parties.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC), represented by Adegboyega Adegoke, is one of the platforms to watch as opposition politics evolves ahead of 2027.
The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), under Yusuf, also enters the contest with an opportunity to present itself as an alternative to the better-established parties.
The Labour Party (LP), which attracted considerable national attention during the 2023 elections, will be seeking to determine whether it can sustain and convert that wider political recognition into support in Oyo.
The remaining parties face similar challenges: distinguishing their candidates from the leading contenders, developing credible programmes and persuading voters that their platforms offer practical answers to the state’s problems.