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Reading The Capacity State feels like holding up a mirror to Nigeria’s most persistent affliction: delay. Hani Okoroafor argues that the true measure of a nation’s strength is not its resources or rhetoric, but its ability to execute- on time, at scale, and with discipline.

In Nigeria, every stalled refinery, every unfinished road, every policy trapped in bureaucratic limbo becomes more than a missed opportunity; it is a silent tax on growth.

The book’s central insight- that prosperity is built at the speed of institutions- rings painfully true in a country where time, not money, is the scarcest resource. Okoroafor’s narrative blends theory with lived reality, showing how weak coordination systems bleed value and erode trust. The question he leaves us with is piercing: if delay is Nigeria’s most expensive product, how much longer can the nation afford to keep producing it?

Institutional inefficiencies

In Nigeria, inefficiency is not just a bureaucratic nuisance- it is a hidden engine of economic loss. In The Capacity State, Hani dissects a truth Nigerians live with daily: institutions that cannot coordinate, execute, or deliver on time bleed nations of prosperity; a major drag on the nation’s ability to convert policy intent into actionable outcomes as reflected in the nation’s sobering score on the index

The book argues that capacity gaps are the true fault lines of governance, more corrosive than corruption because they quietly erode trust and productivity. Think of the refineries that never restart, the roads that remain half-built, or the policies trapped in endless committees.

Bureaucratic bottlenecks, overlapping mandates, and failed execution systems translate into economic loss that is both visible- unfinished refineries, stalled rail projects- and invisible, in the form of lost trust and foregone opportunities.

Okoroafor argues that capacity gaps are not abstract; they are the silent engines of inefficiency that tax growth more than corruption or resource scarcity. Every delayed project becomes a hidden levy on citizens, every missed deadline a drag on competitiveness. Nigeria’s story is one of abundant potential shackled by weak institutional muscle.

The book, further, forces us to confront a piercing question: if inefficiency is the true cost of governance, how long can Nigeria afford to pay this silent tax on its future?

Tellingly, the author makes a compelling case: Nigeria’s greatest deficit is not capital but time.

He argues that weak institutions and failed execution systems transform delay into the country’s most expensive product. The evidence is sobering. BusinessDay’s Price of Time series documents how refinery rehabilitation projects, rail expansions, and power sector reforms repeatedly miss deadlines, each postponement inflating costs and eroding trust.

Okoroafor’s thesis is borne out in hard numbers.

A Lagos-based survey found that consultant-related delays explained over 52% of time overruns and 47% of cost overruns in construction projects. Daily overheads on stalled sites can reach ?500,000-?2 million, meaning a six-month delay on a ?1 billion project inflates costs by nearly ?500-?700 million.

Beyond these figures lies the opportunity cost: every year of refinery delay forces Nigeria to import refined petroleum, draining foreign exchange and undermining energy security.

The book insists that prosperity is built at the speed of institutions. Nigeria’s inability to execute on time translates directly into diminished competitiveness, foregone jobs, and weakened investor confidence. Okoroafor’s piercing insight reframes delay not as inefficiency but as a hidden tax on growth.

The Capacity State leaves readers with a stark conclusion: until Nigeria treats time as its most precious resource, inefficiency will remain the nation’s most expensive product.

Reader’s Takeaway

Hani Okoroafor’s The Capacity State leaves readers with a piercing truth: Nigeria’s growth story will remain stunted until it confronts the hidden tax of delay. Strengthening institutional capacity and enforcing execution discipline are not optional-they are the very foundations of prosperity. Every stalled refinery, every unfinished road, every policy trapped in bureaucratic limbo is more than inefficiency; it is a levy on citizens’ futures.

The book’s lesson is clear: time, not money, is Nigeria’s scarcest resource. Nations rise or fall at the speed of their institutions, and Nigeria’s inability to deliver on time has become its most expensive product.

For policymakers, business leaders, and citizens alike, this is not just a diagnosis but a call to action. If you want to understand why delay is Nigeria’s kryptonite- and how disciplined institutions can unlock growth- then The Capacity State is essential reading. It is a book that does not merely describe Nigeria’s challenges; it equips readers to see delay as the central obstacle to prosperity and offers a framework for breaking free.

To grasp why tackling inefficiency is Nigeria’s most urgent reform, you need to read this book.

Lower-income households are increasingly being priced out of Lagos’ housing market as property prices far exceed what most earners can afford, highlighting a widening mismatch between housing supply and effective demand, according to research by GTI Investment Group’s Research and Strategy division.

The research, contained in GTI Research’s Beyond Rent: A Lagos Housing and Capital Report, estimates that Lagos requires about N6 trillion in fresh capital annually to keep pace with its housing deficit.

But the report argues that the housing challenge is not simply about building more homes. It is increasingly a problem of capital allocation, affordability and access to housing finance, with much of the housing being supplied concentrated at price points beyond the reach of the majority of households.

GTI’s analysis shows that properties priced below N15 million account for less than 5 percent of housing supply but represent about 55 percent of estimated demand.

Similarly, homes priced between N15 million and N80 million account for about 10 percent of supply against roughly 35 percent of demand.

At the upper end of the market, properties above N200 million make up about 55 percent of supply but only 5 percent of estimated demand.

This means that more than half of Lagos’ housing supply is being developed for a relatively small segment of the market, while the majority of demand remains concentrated at the lower end.

The report therefore describes the problem as a lower-income finance exclusion problem, rather than a universal failure of affordability.

‘This is a lower-income finance exclusion problem, not a universal affordability failure,’ the report states.

GTI’s findings come as housing costs continue to rise faster than household incomes. The research estimates that rents across Lagos increased by 80-120 percent between 2024 and 2026, while wages rose by only 7-9 percent over the same period.

As a result, 80.6 percent of residents surveyed by GTI described housing in Lagos as severely unaffordable.

The affordability gap becomes clearer when the cost of homes is compared with what households can realistically finance.

Using a subsidised mortgage rate of 9.75 percent, a 20-year tenor and a 10 percent equity contribution, GTI estimates that low-income earners can afford property values of about N2.46 million.

Lower-middle-income earners can access properties ranging from approximately N2.5 million to N5.28 million, while middle-income earners have an estimated affordability range of N5.31 million to N17.59 million.

Upper-middle-income earners can support property values between N17.63 million and N52.77 million.

Against this backdrop, GTI argues that Nigeria’s official affordable-housing range of N15 million to N40 million remains largely inaccessible to lower-income households, even under subsidised mortgage conditions.

The report also puts Lagos’ property price-to-income ratio at 19.2 times, higher than Cairo’s 18.4 times and substantially above Nairobi at 11.5 times, Cape Town at 5.4 times and Durban at 4.2 times.

A Lagos-based developer interviewed by GTI, identified as Mr Jarus, said affordability has become difficult even for relatively high-income workers.

‘I cannot remember the last time someone in Nigeria bought a house from me,’ he told the researchers, adding that even oil and gas workers earning N3 million-N4 million monthly were struggling to afford decent properties.

N6trn annual capital requirement

The scale of the affordability challenge is reflected in GTI’s estimate that Lagos needs approximately N6 trillion in fresh capital every year to keep pace with its housing deficit.

The figure is about 2.6 times Lagos State’s N2.337 trillion 2026 capital budget, underscoring the size of the financing gap confronting the housing market.

GTI’s research, based on more than 3,200 rental listings across four platforms, field surveys of commuter fares and infrastructure project data covering 15 zones across Lagos, argues that conventional public spending alone is unlikely to close the gap.

The report proposes four financing mechanisms that it estimates could collectively mobilise between N2.75 trillion and N3.85 trillion annually, equivalent to about 45-65 percent of the identified capital requirement.

These include Micro-Title Regularisation, which GTI estimates could mobilise N150 billion-N250 billion annually by converting informal occupancy into mortgageable titles.

It also proposes a Lagos Infrastructure Value Capture Authority (LIVCA), which would use betterment levies and ‘Uplift Bonds’ to capture part of the increase in land values created by public infrastructure. GTI estimates this could generate between N600 billion and N900 billion annually.

Another proposal is the Lagos Land Equity and Ground-Lease Trust (LLEGT), through which state-owned land could be converted into trust equity while retaining state ownership. GTI estimates annual mobilisation of N1.2 trillion-N1.5 trillion.

The fourth is LaREIT, a proposed Lagos rental-equity real estate investment trust that would allow 15-20 percent of rent paid by participating tenants to vest as housing equity without requiring a conventional mortgage.

GTI estimates LaREIT could mobilise between N800 billion and N1.2 trillion annually.

Housing being built for the wrong market

GTI’s analysis suggests that the affordability problem is closely tied to the structure of housing supply.

While demand is concentrated in lower-priced properties, developers are supplying a much larger share of homes at the upper end of the market.

The report estimates that properties above N200 million account for roughly 55 percent of supply, despite representing only about 5 percent of demand.

Conversely, homes below N15 million account for less than 5 percent of supply despite representing approximately 55 percent of demand.

The mismatch means that simply increasing the number of houses built may not significantly improve affordability if new supply continues to target households with substantially higher purchasing power.

GTI’s analysis therefore points towards a need to redirect capital towards housing segments where demand is deepest.

The report also argues that housing affordability cannot be assessed by rent alone.

GTI developed an Effective Rent Burden Matrix, combining annual rent and commuting costs to estimate the broader cost of living associated with different locations.

For a two-bedroom property, annual rent in Yaba is estimated at about N4.75 million, compared with roughly N3.1 million in Ajah.

However, annual dual-commute costs to Marina are estimated at about N526,000 for Yaba residents, compared with N1.15 million for Ajah residents.

Ajah residents also spend about 21 additional minutes per trip commuting to Marina, which GTI estimates translates into approximately 23 additional eight-hour working days spent in transit annually.

‘What you do not pay for in accommodation, you might pay for in transportation,’ GTI states.

The finding suggests that lower headline rents in peripheral areas can be offset by higher transportation and time costs, making the effective cost of housing significantly different from the advertised rent.

Infrastructure reshaping property values

GTI’s analysis also identifies transport infrastructure as an increasingly important determinant of property values across Lagos.

Properties within the catchment of the Blue Line rail record gross rental yields of about 6-7 percent, compared with 4-4.5 percent for comparable properties outside the catchment, according to the report.

GTI projects that the Red Line could support property price growth of 12-18 percent in Yaba and 10-15 percent in Ikeja through 2026.

It also estimates that properties within 1-2 kilometres of a rail station can command a 10-25 percent value premium.

The report describes the Lekki-Epe corridor as having shifted from a congestion-driven pricing model towards what it calls ‘access-stabilised lifestyle pricing’ as transport infrastructure improves.

It also identifies the Omi Eko water-transit project, planned around 78 vessels, 15 routes and 25 terminals, as potentially significant to the long-term reshaping of Lagos’ property geography.

GTI estimates that the project could increase water transport’s share of daily mobility from about 1 percent to 8 percent by 2032.

Cement alone cannot solve the affordability problem

Despite the sharp increase in construction costs, GTI argues that cement prices alone do not explain Lagos’ housing affordability crisis.

The report estimates that the price of a 50kg bag of cement increased from about N2,500 in 2020 to between N11,500 and N15,000 in 2026.

However, GTI calculates that an 82 percent reduction in cement prices, based on a comparison with Vietnam’s cement pricing, would reduce the total construction cost of a N25 million housing unit by about 14.76 percent, equivalent to N3.69 million.

The research therefore points to land costs, approval charges, infrastructure deficiencies and financing constraints as other major contributors to housing costs.

GTI estimates that land consent, registration and delays under the Land Use Act can add N5 million-N10 million to a N50 million property.

It also estimates that Lagos State collected about N80 billion in building-approval charges in 2025, with charges of roughly N500,000-N2 million per unit.

Rather than advocating full-scale liberalisation of cement imports, GTI proposes a Cement Price Concession for Affordable Housing, under which producers would supply designated affordable-housing projects at discounted prices in return for volume commitments and tax incentives.

Investment opportunities remain, but risks are high

For investors, GTI’s district-level analysis shows significant differences in rental yields across Lagos.

Ibeju-Epe and Yaba recorded the highest gross yields in its analysis, at about 1.86 percent and 1.78 percent, respectively, while Ikoyi and Ikorodu recorded 0.87 percent and 0.56 percent.

The report describes Lekki Phase 1 as a mature market where much of the infrastructure premium has already been priced in.

It identifies Ajah, Sangotedo and Ibeju-Epe as a longer-term growth corridor linked to developments around the Lekki Deep-Sea Port and Free Trade Zone.

GTI estimates five-year cumulative price appreciation of 80-120 percent in the Ibeju-Lekki corridor, 60-90 percent around Red Line mainland nodes, 50-70 percent in mainland legacy zones and 40-60 percent in prime Island locations such as Ikoyi and Victoria Island.

However, the report cautions that infrastructure-led appreciation depends on actual project delivery, meaning anticipated corridor premiums can remain deferred when infrastructure projects are delayed.

GTI also highlights a significant yield gap for investors, putting the current net yield on Lekki Phase 1 property at about 3.2 percent, compared with roughly 22 percent on Nigerian Treasury bills.

Purpose-built student accommodation around Yaba, meanwhile, is estimated to generate yields of 10-12 percent.

The report identifies land fraud, multiple sales, forged Certificates of Occupancy, revocation risks under the Land Use Act, naira volatility and uncertainty around infrastructure delivery among the key risks facing property investors.

It also flags lengthy foreclosure processes, which it says can take between two and three years, as a constraint on mortgage lending.

GTI recommends that financial institutions increasingly ‘finance corridors, not houses’, assessing property risk based on infrastructure, location and broader economic activity rather than relying solely on individual properties as collateral.

Climate risk is also identified as a longer-term concern, particularly because flood exposure overlaps with some of Lagos’ most valuable infrastructure and property corridors.

GTI’s central conclusion is that Lagos’ housing crisis cannot be solved simply by increasing construction.

The city needs a housing-finance system that connects land, infrastructure, mortgages, rental income and investment capital, while directing more capital towards the segments where demand is greatest.

Lagos Angel Network is pushing to make Nigerian investors the first source of capital for the country’s early-stage startups, as tighter global funding conditions force founders to compete harder for venture capital.

The network wants more Nigerian entrepreneurs, executives and professionals to move from building companies to backing them, creating a local layer of capital that can support startups before they become attractive to larger institutional or foreign investors.

Solomon King, executive director of Lagos Angel Network, said the goal is not to replace foreign venture capital but to ensure Nigerian startups do not have to wait for overseas investors before receiving their first meaningful backing.

‘Ultimately, our ecosystem cannot depend entirely on foreign capital to finance its earliest-stage companies. We need a stronger local first layer of capital,’ King told BusinessDay.

The push comes as investors become more selective about African startups, with early-stage companies bearing much of the pressure. Venture-backed companies across Africa raised $158.9 million in the second quarter of 2026 across 143 deals, according to KPMG’s Venture Pulse report. KPMG described investment as soft and said investors were focusing primarily on more proven startups rather than companies at earlier conceptual stages.

The squeeze is more visible at the seed stage. An analysis of Q2 funding data from AU-Startups found that seed-stage deals fell 60 percent in the quarter, raising concerns about the pipeline of companies that would otherwise progress to larger Series A rounds.

Africa: The Big Deal has also highlighted a thinner market for smaller funding rounds. Its analysis shows that the $100,000 to $1 million segment has contracted in deal volume from the funding boom years, even though the decline has not been limited to smaller deals.

That shift is important for Nigeria because angel investors typically operate at the stage where institutional investors are becoming more cautious. A deeper pool of local angels could therefore provide the first capital that allows promising founders to develop products, prove demand and build the track record needed to attract larger investors.

For Lagos Angel Network, that is the gap it wants to address: not replacing venture capital, but building a stronger domestic layer of investors willing to take informed risks before institutional capital arrives.

King said Nigeria still attracts capital and that startups continue to raise money, but investors are now more cautious about where they put their money.

Foreign exchange volatility, inflation, insecurity and the wider operating environment have made Nigeria a more difficult market for international investors, he said, adding that, ‘Currency risk is a very serious consideration.’

The change in investor behaviour means founders are increasingly being judged on the quality of their businesses, rather than solely on the size of the market or the ambition of their growth plans.

That shift could make local angel investors more important because they can invest at an earlier stage, when startups may not yet have the revenue, scale or performance metrics required by institutional venture funds. An angel investor can back a founder with an idea, an early product or an emerging business before it becomes sufficiently developed for a venture capital fund.

King said this early cheque can help move a company from an idea or early product into a business that is ready to attract larger pools of capital. But he cautioned against treating angel investors as a substitute for venture capital.

‘Angels can fill some of that gap. But the goal shouldn’t be to say angels will replace VCs,’ he posited.

Instead, Nigeria needs what King described as a stronger continuum of capital, where local angels provide early funding and support, followed by institutional investors as startups mature.

That could change the dynamics of Nigeria’s startup market. Rather than founders having to secure foreign interest at the earliest stage, local investors could provide the initial capital and connections needed to build companies capable of attracting international funding later.

Lagos Angel Network is now trying to expand that pool of investors. Its third Lagos Angel Fellowship cohort is designed to attract seasoned entrepreneurs, business leaders, senior executives, emerging investors and professionals with industry expertise who want to begin investing in startups.

Applications for the third cohort of the Lagos Angel Fellowship are open, with the deadline set for September 7, 2026. The six-week programme is aimed at building a wider pool of informed and active angel investors who can provide capital and strategic support to Nigerian startups at the earliest stages of development.

The fellowship offers participants practical training in startup evaluation, due diligence, valuation, deal terms and portfolio support, rather than focusing only on the theory of angel investing. Participants will also have opportunities to engage with experienced angel investors through live question-and-answer sessions and gain exposure to startups moving through the early-stage investment process.

The programme is designed to help participants understand how experienced investors assess founders and businesses, identify risks and make decisions when information is incomplete. Fellows will also have access to a wider community of entrepreneurs, investors and professionals involved in Africa’s startup ecosystem.

LAN has created two pathways for Cohort III. The Learning Track is for professionals, executives, entrepreneurs, investors and ecosystem participants who want to develop or deepen their understanding of early-stage investing. The LAN Induction Track is aimed at people with investment capacity who are ready to formally join the network and participate more actively in its investment community.

The fellowship is not limited to people who already describe themselves as angel investors. LAN is seeking successful entrepreneurs, senior executives, experienced professionals, business leaders and other individuals with capital, industry knowledge or networks who are willing to learn how to invest in early-stage companies and contribute more than money to the businesses they back.

Participants who successfully complete the LAN Induction Track will be formally inducted into the network, giving them access to LAN’s curated deal flow and Investment Committee processes. The broader objective is to create more Nigerians capable of making informed early-stage investment decisions and, ultimately, increase the amount of local capital available to startups before they become large enough to attract institutional or foreign investors.

The network previously launched its fellowship with the African Angel Academy, with the programme designed to equip professionals with practical skills for early-stage investing.

For King, increasing the number of people willing to write startup cheques is only part of the challenge. The quality of those investment decisions matters just as much. ‘Not every business should be funded, frankly,’ he said.

LAN therefore wants to reduce what King sees as a major weakness in Nigeria’s startup market: the information and trust gap between founders and investors.

Founders may believe they have built a business that deserves funding, while investors must assess hundreds of opportunities and determine which ones can survive and grow. ‘A lot of what people describe as a funding gap is actually an information and trust gap,’ King added.

The network is attempting to address that through screening, due diligence, investor education and founder engagement. The aim is to give investors better information while helping founders understand what makes a company ready for external capital.That distinction is becoming more important as investors demand stronger business fundamentals.

A report Payble founder Roosevelt Elias, said investors were increasingly prioritising revenue, sustainability and governance over growth promises. It also reported that only 162 unique investors participated in African startup deals between January and April 2026, a 26 percent decline from the same period in 2025.

For Nigerian founders, a deeper domestic angel market could therefore provide a buffer against swings in international capital. It could also create a different kind of investor relationship.

King said the best angel investors do more than provide money. They can help startups win customers, recruit staff, improve governance, understand an industry and avoid costly mistakes. ‘Sometimes, the smartest money a founder receives is not the largest cheque,’ he asserted.

That model requires investors to bring experience and networks alongside capital. It also requires investors to understand that startup investing is fundamentally different from lending.

King said some prospective angels expect guaranteed returns or precise repayment timelines. But early-stage investing carries a high probability of failure, with the expectation that a small number of successful investments can generate enough returns to offset companies that fail. That makes investor education central to LAN’s strategy.

Over the next five years, King expects Nigeria to develop a deeper pool of local angels, particularly as successful founders, executives and professionals begin to recycle their wealth and experience into the next generation of businesses.

The cycle could become self-reinforcing: successful entrepreneurs become investors, investors support new companies, and successful exits create more investors.

But King said Nigeria needs more than capital to make that happen, adding that, ‘The ecosystem needs stronger investor networks, better syndication, investor protections and successful exits that demonstrate that angel investing can work. LAN’s ambition ultimately goes beyond increasing membership.’

King wants to see more Nigerians write their first startup cheques, even if those cheques are relatively small, and more capital available at the earliest stages of company building.

‘The measure of success would be a Nigerian founder receiving meaningful backing locally without first having to wait for a foreign investor to discover the company. We should be able to identify, support and back promising Nigerian businesses here at home,’ King said.

That would mark a significant shift in Nigeria’s startup financing model: foreign capital would remain welcome, but local investors would increasingly have the opportunity to take the first risk. For Lagos Angel Network, that is the market it is trying to build.

AFC Capital Partners (ACP), the asset management subsidiary of Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), has launched the Infrastructure Climate-Resilient Fund Nigeria (ICRF Nigeria), targeting $150 million to mobilise long-term domestic institutional capital for infrastructure projects.

The ICRF Nigeria, managed by ACP, has been registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as a closed-end fund. It will channel domestic institutional capital into infrastructure projects in transport and logistics, renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and industrial development.

The Nigerian vehicle is part of ACP’s $750 million Infrastructure Climate-Resilient Fund, which has attracted capital from the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the European Investment Bank, the Development Bank of Southern Africa, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority, and African pension funds.

The wider fund has received a $253 million first-loss commitment from the GCF, its largest equity investment in Africa to date. ACP expects the broader vehicle to mobilise up to $3.7 billion and invest across 10 to 12 infrastructure projects in Africa.

The structure is designed to address a funding gap in infrastructure by combining institutional capital with concessional and commercial financing. The first-loss capital is intended to reduce investment risk and attract additional private capital into projects.

Samaila Zubairu, AFC’s president and CEO, said, ‘Africa is not short of capital. The continent holds more than $4 trillion in domestic resources, including significant pools of confidential long-term capital in pensions, insurance, and sovereign wealth funds. Yet too much of this wealth remains invested in low-risk, short-term instruments rather than being channeled into productive sectors such as infrastructure, industry, and innovation.

‘The opportunity before us is to create investment vehicles that connect Africa’s long-term savings with its long-term development needs. ICRF Nigeria is an important step in that direction, enabling Nigerian institutional capital to participate in the infrastructure that will drive more resilient and sustainable growth across Nigeria and the continent.’

Ayaan Adam, CEO of ACP, said: ‘ICRF Nigeria gives Nigerian institutional investors a dedicated route into high-quality, climate-resilient infrastructure investments across Nigeria and Africa.

By combining institutional capital with AFC’s infrastructure expertise and the catalytic power of blended finance, we can address both the financing needs of critical infrastructure and the growing risks posed by climate change.

‘Importantly, this creates an avenue for Nigeria’s long-term savings to contribute to infrastructure development while giving investors access to a diversified portfolio of opportunities across the continent.’

Gbadebo Adenrele, managing director and CEO, investment banking at United Capital, said, ‘Nigeria’s investment pool is channeled towards infrastructure, especially in the pension funds, estimated at N31 trillion right now and still growing,’ Adenrele said.

He said infrastructure funds have received more investment in recent years, but the financing requirement remains above the capital available.

Africa’s infrastructure financing gap is estimated to be between $130 billion and $170 billion annually, according to Adenrele.

‘That tells you that infrastructure financing in Africa is a major deficit there, and we all need to crowd in financing from institutional investors, from DFIs, large banks, and pension funds,’ he said.

Adenrele said the success of the capital raise would depend in part on the ability of sponsors and other market participants to reduce risks associated with infrastructure projects.

‘There’s a lot of de-risking that needs to continue to play out in the market,’ he said. ‘A lot of market players, advisors, and sponsors are working together to de-risk projects and make sure that those projects are investable by investors.’

He added that investor interest in infrastructure funds has increased and said he expects the $150 million target to attract institutional participation.

David Johnson, chief risk officer of AFC, said ICRF Nigeria is intended to address the shortage of long-term, risk-adjusted capital for infrastructure projects that can generate commercial returns while accounting for climate risks.

‘ICRF Nigeria is designed to address a critical market gap: the shortage of long-term, risk-adjusted capital for infrastructure that is both commercially viable and resilient to climate impacts,’ Johnson said.

He said the fund will invest across the infrastructure value chain, from projects developed by AFC to projects that have reached maturity and require project finance.

‘So the way ICRF will invest, it’s going to invest all along the value chain from projects that the parent company, AFC, will develop to mature projects,’ Johnson said.

The Nigerian fund is targeting $150 million and plans to mobilise about 50 percent of its target at first close. It is focused on attracting long-term capital from pension fund administrators alongside other eligible domestic institutional investors.

Chika Dotimi-Beke, CFO of AFC Capital Partners Nigeria Limited, said securing institutional commitments is the next step following the fund’s registration with the SEC.

‘Today marks the signing of an approved license from the SEC, and what we want to do is to get institutional investors to invest in the fund,’ Dotimi-Beke said.

She said the fund will focus on transport and logistics, renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and platforms.

The first investment is expected before the end of 2026, with transport and renewable energy expected to receive the first allocations after the Nigerian fund reaches its first close.

Nigeria’s poverty rate is projected to remain broadly unchanged at 63 percent in 2026 despite improvements in macroeconomic stability, underscoring the difficulty of translating lower inflation, a more stable naira and stronger economic growth into better living conditions for households, according to Strategyand’s H2 2026 Nigeria Economic Outlook.

‘Poverty rates remain elevated and are projected to remain broadly unchanged in 2026, indicating limited gains from the recent macroeconomic stabilisation,’ Strategyand said.

The report also noted that undernourishment increased from 10.8 percent in 2015-2017 to 19.9 percent in 2022-2024, reflecting continued pressure on household food affordability and access.

The weak transmission from macroeconomic stability to household welfare comes even as Nigeria enters the second half of the year with a more favourable economic outlook.

Strategyand projects the economy to grow by 4.2 percent in H2 2026, supported by higher crude oil production and stronger performance in dominant sectors.

It expects inflation to moderate further, while the naira is projected to remain broadly stable, although vulnerable to global oil prices, capital flows and domestic foreign-exchange demand.

Households continue to face pressure from food, housing and energy costs. Food inflation rose to 17.52 percent in June, while housing inflation increased to 14.81 percent. The cost of a healthy diet also rose to N1,589 per adult per day in April, up 4.68 percent from a year earlier.

The report also highlights worsening food insecurity, with undernourishment rising from 10.8 percent in 2015-2017 to 19.9 percent in 2022-2024. Energy costs remain another major burden, as diesel prices rose 43.67 percent year-on-year in April, alongside increases in kerosene, petrol, and LPG prices.

Strategyand therefore argues that macroeconomic stability alone may not be enough to improve living standards quickly, with lower food and energy costs crucial to translating economic recovery into better household welfare.

Growth is improving but not felt yet

Nigeria’s real GDP grew 3.89 percent year-on-year in Q1 2026, compared with 3.13 percent in Q1 2025.

ICT, finance and insurance, construction and agriculture were the main contributors, growing by 10.98 percent, 8.54 percent, 6.38 percent and 3.15 percent, respectively.

However, Strategyand said growth remains concentrated across a narrow set of sectors. Electricity contracted by 15.30 percent, while oil and gas grew by 2.57 percent. Trade and real estate also recorded relatively weak growth amid high operating, logistics, financing and building costs.

This concentration matters for the poverty outlook because the report identifies limited income and employment gains, high essential costs and weak consumer credit as factors holding back household spending.

Credit constraints could slow broader recovery

Businesses, particularly MSMEs, also face difficulty accessing affordable finance. Private-sector credit stands at 21.3 percent of GDP, below the sub-Saharan African average of 33 percent.

Strategyand identified a financing gap for businesses seeking between N500,000 and N30 million, between the typical lending ranges of microfinance institutions and commercial banks.

Credit to government increased by 18 percent between December 2025 and May 2026, compared with 6.9 percent growth in private-sector credit. Private-sector credit also declined by 14.3 percent between February and May 2026.

The report argues that closing this financing gap through targeted credit windows, guarantees and blended finance would help support working capital, business expansion and investment.

Foreign capital inflows remain dominated by portfolio investment

Foreign capital inflows strengthened in the first quarter of 2026, rising 83.8 percent year-on-year to $10.37 billion, another indication of improving investor confidence. However, the inflows remain dominated by short-term portfolio investment, which accounted for 95.1 percent of the total, while foreign direct investment contributed just 1.3 percent.

Strategyand says Nigeria needs to turn this investor interest into longer-term productive investment by improving policy certainty, developing more bankable projects and addressing bottlenecks around approvals, land, financing and foreign exchange.

Infrastructure and insecurity remain major obstacles to investment and productivity. Nigeria ranked 68th out of 70 economies in the 2026 IMD competitiveness ranking and 70th on infrastructure, while insecurity was identified as the biggest business constraint in the May 2026 survey, with a score of 72.9.

For the second half of 2026, Strategyand therefore sees a more stable and faster-growing economy, but one that still faces challenges in translating macroeconomic gains into better living standards. It recommends targeted household support, lower food costs through improved agricultural productivity and logistics, stronger domestic energy supply, greater access to private-sector credit and faster investment in productive sectors.

Linda Naa Dzama Quaynor has made history at United Bank for Africa (UBA) Ghana after being appointed the bank’s first female Board Chair, marking a significant milestone in its governance and leadership journey.

Quaynor succeeds Kweku Andoh Awotwi, who completed his tenure and retired from the board after years of distinguished service and leadership that supported the bank’s growth.

Her appointment comes as UBA Ghana continues to strengthen its operations and pursue growth in an increasingly competitive financial services environment shaped by digital transformation, changing customer expectations, regulatory pressures, and the need for sustainable expansion.

Prior to becoming Board Chair, Quaynor served as Chair of UBA Ghana’s Technology and Information Security Committee, where she provided strategic oversight on resilience, risk management, and governance.

She brings more than 25 years of experience spanning management consulting, financial services, public policy advisory and corporate strategy across Africa and international markets.

Her career has involved leading transformation initiatives for governments, regulators, financial institutions, multinational corporations, and development organisations across Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa, the United Kingdom, Europe, and the United States.

Quaynor has held several senior leadership positions, including Programme Director for Nigeria at Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, Senior Partner at VirCan Capital, Partner at Deloitte Consulting West Africa, General Manager at EFInA, and Senior Executive at Accenture.

She currently serves as a partner and West Africa Strategy Leader at Deloitte Nigeria, where she has been involved in strategy and operations advisory across the region.

Before Deloitte, she served as General Manager of Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access (EFInA), working with the board and management team to develop and execute its strategic plan for advancing financial inclusion in Nigeria.

Her professional experience covers corporate and business strategy, due diligence, post-merger integration, organisational enhancement, corporate governance, board performance improvement, project management, performance management, and government relations.

Quaynor also serves on other corporate and institutional boards, including as a Board Member of the Ghana Infrastructure Investment Fund and as an independent non-executive director of Growth Investment Partners, a provider of growth capital to Ghanaian companies.

She holds an MBA from the University of Kent and a Bachelor of Arts degree in Accounting and Finance from Middlesex University. She also completed executive education in Strategic Management at Harvard University.

UBA Ghana said her appointment reinforces its commitment to diversity, inclusion and progressive leadership within the financial services sector.

The bank also linked the appointment to broader leadership changes undertaken during the year, including the appointment of two Ghanaians as managing director/chief executive officer and Executive Director of the bank.

Oliver Alawuba, group managing director of UBA Plc, expressed appreciation to Awotwi for his dedicated leadership and contribution to the bank’s expansion.

He also welcomed Quaynor to the new role, expressing confidence that she would continue the bank’s growth trajectory.

The bank said Awotwi’s tenure was characterised by transformational growth across key performance metrics, while his leadership helped position UBA Ghana for its next phase of development.

The Board and Management of UBA Ghana expressed confidence that Quaynor’s extensive experience and leadership expertise would support the bank’s continued growth and strengthen its contribution to Ghana’s financial services sector.

Ruth Owojaiye, Director, Corporate and Regulatory Affairs at BAT Nigeria, will lead the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria Export Promotion Group (MANEG), strategic efforts to strengthen Nigeria’s export competitiveness and promote export-led industrial growth.

This follows her appointment by MANEG as the new chair of the sectoral group of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, with the responsibility of promoting export.

MANEG in a statement announcing her appointment stated that Owojaiye who succeeds Odiri Erewa-Meggison, assumes leadership of the group at a pivotal time for Nigeria’s manufacturing sector.

This is so as the government and industry intensify efforts to boost and diversify non-oil exports, deepen industrialisation and maximise opportunities presented by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

According to MANEG, Owojaiye brings more than two decades of leadership experience spanning corporate affairs, communications, regulatory affairs, sustainability, stakeholder engagement and public policy advocacy.

‘Her extensive experience navigating Nigeria’s evolving regulatory landscape and building strategic partnerships positions her well to lead MANEG’s next phase of growth and advocacy.’

As chair, Owojaiye will lead MANEG’s engagement with government, policymakers, regulators, development partners and industry stakeholders to advance reforms that improve trade facilitation, strengthen Nigeria’s export competitiveness, enhance market access for locally manufactured products and create a more enabling environment for export-oriented manufacturing.

‘I am honoured to build on the strong foundation laid by Odiri Erewa-Meggison, whose leadership has strengthened MANEG’s voice in shaping Nigeria’s export agenda,’ Owojaiye stated, while commending her predecessor her visionary leadership and significant contributions to advancing MANEG’s mission.

She added that Nigeria has the talent, industrial capacity and entrepreneurial drive to become one of Africa’s leading export manufacturing hubs.

‘Achieving this requires stronger collaboration between government and industry, consistent policies and practical reforms that make exporting easier and more competitive.

‘Together, we will champion initiatives that unlock greater opportunities for Nigerian manufacturers to compete and succeed across Africa and global markets,’ Owojaiye stated.

According to her, Nigeria can diversify her economy, strengthen foreign exchange earnings, create quality jobs and accelerate inclusive growth, by creating an enabling environment for manufacturers to innovate, produce competitively and access regional and international markets.

Africa’s largest telecoms operator MTN Group is exploring banking licences in select markets as the company looks to expand lending from its own balance sheet, CEO Ralph Mupita said on Tuesday.

MTN is stepping up its push into fintech services to drive growth beyond traditional telecommunications revenue, with lending emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments within its mobile money business.

‘We’re seeing good growth on advanced services, which are our future-proof services,’ Mupita told journalists, referring to offerings such as payments, e-commerce and ?lending.

‘The big growth now, which will be the growth of the future, is actually lending.’

MTN currently provides loans through partnerships with banks.

‘We’re beginning to explore, where it makes sense and where there are large customer bases (and) significant floats in wallets, whether it may make sense to have some sort of banking licence that enables us to take deposits,’ Mupita said.

‘As such, we will then be lending over time off our own balance sheet. But also, it doesn’t mean we won’t do ?partnership lending.’

Agricultural technology company A4S and investment and project-development firm Natari have reaffirmed plans to deepen their presence in Nigeria, positioning the country as a potential hub for their wider African operations and investment activities.

The companies made the disclosure at the Nigerian launch of their expanded agricultural technology-investment-finance partnership, which brings together A4S, Natari and Providus Bank, with strategic support from Afolabi Kehinde Oke, Ambassador of the African Union 6th Region and Managing Director of Global infoswift, as well as the economic and financial inclusion platform of PreCEFI/SheIncluded.

The partnership is built around a model linking agricultural technology, productive assets, finance, processing and markets, with A4S providing agricultural technology including its 4Tree product, Natari developing investment projects and productive assets, and Providus Bank providing banking and financial infrastructure.

A key question at the press conference held in Lagos on Monday August 24, 2026, focused on the actual financial commitment being made to Nigeria, given the companies’ declaration that Nigeria is an ‘anchor market, not a test market.’

Responding to the question, Olugbile Erinwusi, chief risk officer of Providus Bank, said the financial commitment to Nigeria could be in excess of $20 million, while noting that the opportunity has expanded significantly as the businesses have grown across Africa.

‘In terms of the financial commitment, I can boldly say that it should be in excess of 20 million dollars. Predominantly, that was when they hadn’t even expanded to several other African countries. The potential is very huge, and that’s why even at the government level, they are very ready to see how they can provide a lot of support.’

Erinwusi also disclosed that Providus Bank is working on a technology platform intended to facilitate payments and collections associated with the business.

‘We are currently working on building an app which will take care of all the payment systems and it’ll support all the collection of sales to create convenience for the people and create transparency. That creates end-to-end convenience for people.’

He added that Providus Bank’s existing cross-border banking relationship with Thailand was also helping to facilitate the international dimension of the partnership.

‘As a bank, we have been able to do a lot of remittance to Thailand, which provides a lot of comfort in terms of cross-border relationship.’

Esini Orji Ibiam, Natari’s Regional Director, provided a more ambitious outlook for the investment pipeline, describing Nigeria as a catchment area for the group’s multi-country operations and potentially the hub for its African production activities.

‘It is a multi-country based business, so in terms of financial cost of investment, Nigeria happens to be a catchment area for almost all that we are doing. Meaning the investment flow comes through Nigeria based on the good banking environment we found through Providus Bank.’

Ibiam said Natari’s investment plans were expected to increase substantially, citing $12 million in investment in the previous year and a target of more than $50 million this year.

‘Last year, 12 million US dollars and this year, we would be looking at over 50 million dollars investment.’

He said the partnership with Providus Bank was also helping Natari better understand Nigeria’s financial ecosystem as it considers whether to establish the country as a continental production hub.

‘We can actually have more understanding with the financial system in Nigeria in terms of whether we are going to make Nigeria the hub for Africa in terms of production or otherwise.’

From technology to investment

The wider partnership is intended to connect A4S’s agricultural technology with Natari’s investments in productive assets and agro-processing, while using Providus Bank’s financial infrastructure to facilitate transactions, working capital, trade and cross-border payments.

Natari is currently developing agricultural and industrial projects including a cashew-processing project in Kogi State, a hydroponic farming project in Ebonyi State, and the Best Green City concept in Enugu State.

A4S, meanwhile, is seeking to expand the deployment of 4Tree through demonstration farms, farmer training and crop-specific trials under Nigerian conditions. The companies say the technology will ultimately be assessed through measurable outcomes including productivity, input costs, crop quality and, most importantly, net farmer income.

The initiative also places women’s economic participation at the centre of its strategy through the SheIncluded platform, which seeks to connect women and other underserved Nigerians with technology, finance, entrepreneurship and productive opportunities.

Nurudeen Abubakar Zauro, Technical Adviser to the President on Economic and Financial Inclusion and Executive Secretary of PreCEFI, stressed that the ultimate test of the initiative would be measurable economic outcomes rather than announcements or participation figures.

The partnership’s stated ambition is to move agriculture along a value chain from technology to farm production, finance, processing, manufacturing, logistics, markets and exports, with the Nigerian farmer positioned at the centre.

For Nigeria, the immediate business significance is therefore not simply the launch of another agricultural product, but the potential mobilisation of tens of millions of dollars in investment, the development of local processing and production capacity, new financial infrastructure and the possibility of using Nigeria as a gateway for the companies’ wider African operations.

MTN Group sees financial recovery as Nigeria and Ghana emerge as major contributors to the South African telecom giant’s cash generation thereby helping restore funds flowing back to its Johannesburg headquarters.

The development comes as MTN reported a strong first-half performance for 2026, with service revenue rising 17.5 percent year-on-year to R115.3 billion, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) before once-off items increased by almost a quarter to R56 billion.

MTN received R13.9 billion in cash from its operating subsidiaries during the first six months of 2026, up from R8.2 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Ghana accounted for R6.6 billion of the cash upstreamed to the group, while Nigeria contributed R2.7 billion. Together, the two West African markets supplied about 67 percent of the cash returned to Johannesburg.

The shift highlights the growing importance of MTN’s West African businesses to the group’s financial performance.

Nigeria returns to the centre of MTN’s recovery

Nigeria has become important to MTN’s turnaround after a difficult period marked by naira depreciation, foreign-exchange shortages and rising operating costs.

MTN Nigeria returned to profitability in 2025, posting a profit after tax of about $812 million, compared with a $295 million loss in 2024. Its service revenue increased 55.1 percent , while data revenue jumped 74.5 percent.

The improvement has continued into 2026, with Nigeria among the markets driving MTN Group’s latest revenue growth.

MTN said its first-half performance was led by Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon and other markets, while South Africa recorded a more modest 1.5 percent increase in service revenue.

The stronger cash flow from Nigeria also signals an improvement in the ability of the country’s operations to generate and repatriate funds following the severe foreign-exchange pressures of previous years.

Ghana becomes a major cash engine

Ghana has also emerged as one of MTN’s strongest contributors to group cash generation.

The R6.6 billion upstreamed from Ghana in the first half was more than twice Nigeria’s contribution and substantially higher than the R2.1 billion generated by MTN’s South African operation during the period.

The development reflects the growing financial weight of MTN’s African subsidiaries outside its home market.

At group level, MTN’s stronger operating performance has been supported by subscriber growth, higher data consumption and the expansion of digital and fintech services.

The company’s core earnings increased 24.4 percent during the first half, while its EBITDA margin expanded to 47.1 percent.

The improvement in cash generation is also giving MTN greater room to reward shareholders.

The group announced a R6 billion share buyback programme covering approximately 31 million ordinary shares.

MTN said the programme forms part of its shareholder remuneration framework, under which it aims to return between 40 percent and 60 percent of equity free cash flow to shareholders through dividends or share buybacks.

The latest move follows MTN’s return to annual profitability in 2025, when strong performances in Nigeria and Ghana helped the group swing from a restated loss before tax of R4.1 billion in 2024 to a profit before tax of R47.4 billion.

MTN also increased its final dividend by 45 percent following the 2025 recovery.

West Africa’s growing importance

The latest cash-flow figures reflects a broader shift in MTN’s earnings structure.

While South Africa remains the group’s home market, Nigeria and Ghana are increasingly important to its growth, profitability and ability to generate cash for the parent company.

MTN’s latest results reveals that improvements in currency conditions, stronger pricing, data demand and fintech growth are translating into stronger financial returns from West Africa.

However, the concentration of cash generation in a small number of markets also leaves MTN exposed to currency, regulatory and macroeconomic risks in those countries.

For Nigeria, the recovery is significant because after currency volatility and foreign-exchange constraints weakened the country’s contribution to the group, the return of cash to Johannesburg indicates that MTN Nigeria is once again functioning as a major financial engine for its parent company.

The development could also strengthen MTN Group’s ability to fund network expansion, reduce debt and increase shareholder returns as it pursues its Ambition 2030 strategy.

MTN said it invested almost R20 billion in capital expenditure during the first half of 2026, including spending on mobile networks, home connectivity and IT modernisation.

The company is also progressing with its planned acquisition of the remaining shares in IHS Holdings, subject to outstanding regulatory approvals. In Nigeria, conditional approval requires MTN to sell down 30 percent of IHS Nigeria to local investors.