Category: Sunday Standard

Botswana’s worsening fiscal position is emerging as a growing threat to economic recovery, with the Bank of Botswana warning that rising government borrowing could drain liquidity from the financial system and squeeze credit to businesses.

In its April Monetary Policy Report, the central bank painted a picture of an economy facing pressure from multiple fronts: weak growth, rising inflation, tighter liquidity and an expanding government financing gap.

While public attention has largely focused on inflation and the recent interest rate increase, the deeper concern may lie in the state’s increasing appetite for debt.

The revised 2025/26 budget projects a deficit of P25.5 billion, equivalent to 9.3 percent of GDP, up from the original estimate of P22.1 billion, largely due to weaker mineral revenues as the diamond market remains under pressure. For 2026/27, the deficit is projected at P26.4 billion.

With government investment balances critically low and part of the financing gap still unfunded, authorities are leaning more heavily on borrowing, including domestic debt instruments.

For the central bank, that carries consequences.

The report warns that greater government borrowing could crowd out private sector access to credit at a time when businesses already face tight liquidity and slowing economic activity. Commercial bank credit growth slowed to 2.6 percent in February, down from 5.8 percent a year earlier, suggesting lending appetite is already weakening.

The Bank’s decision to raise the monetary policy rate by 200 basis points to 5.5 percent was partly aimed at improving monetary policy transmission in a strained liquidity environment, not simply containing inflation.

For Botswana’s private sector, the risk is straightforward: as government borrows more to stay afloat, less room may remain for businesses trying to fund expansion, investment and survival.

Botswana’s inflation rate surged into double digits in April, delivering a sharp cost-of-living shock that could complicate the Bank of Botswana’s policy path in the months ahead.

Latest figures from Statistics Botswana show annual inflation accelerated to 10.3 percent in April, up from 4.2 percent in March, marking one of the steepest month-on-month jumps in recent years.

The spike was overwhelmingly driven by transport costs after the March fuel price adjustment filtered through the economy and public transport operators raised fares from the start of April.

Transport alone contributed 7.4 percentage points to the inflation figure, dwarfing all other categories. The transport index rose 21.1 percent in a single month, with the cost of operating personal transport climbing 33.8 percent, while transport services rose 16.6 percent.

The data underscores how vulnerable Botswana remains to imported inflation shocks. Imported tradeables inflation climbed to 17.8 percent, from 6.6 percent in March, reflecting the pass-through effect of higher fuel and import costs.

Rural households appear to have taken the hardest hit, with inflation in rural villages reaching 11.8 percent, compared to 10.1 percent in urban villages and 9.6 percent in towns and cities.

Beyond transport, inflation pressures are broadening. Insurance costs jumped 13 percent, helping push miscellaneous goods and services up 6.8 percent.

More worrying for policymakers, core inflation is beginning to stir. Trimmed mean core inflation rose to 8.8 percent from 4.8 percent, suggesting price pressures are spreading beyond one-off administered increases.

For households already stretched by stagnant incomes, April’s inflation print signals that the squeeze is no longer confined to the petrol station – it is moving across the economy.

Shrinking government to allow the private sector to grow should be our nation’s motto. That is how it works and has worked all over the world. Even those nations frequently held up as paragons of welfare and compassion have moved on.

You see the cash crunch we are facing with your own eyes. Go to a government building for a meeting, and you see things for yourself. They can’t even serve you bottled water. They are unable to serve simple refreshments, even though that was not always necessary in many cases. So the signs of the cash crunch are out there for everyone to see.

But the long and short of this cash crunch is that, over time, the public sector has become outsized. There is no running away from that. This is where the correction needs to take place. And we all understand that the correction is bound to be painful. Over time, many in this country have behaved as though the government, by nature, has a perennial source of funds. They never imagined that the government could one day run short of money, despite repeated warnings from esteemed international organisations.

They saw countries in the region struggle, with some even failing to pay salaries on time but could not conceptualise that, something that happens to a country that has a large and unproductive public sector compared to the private sector. You need a bigger private sector simply because that is where wealth creation occurs. The bulk of the stuff they do in government adds little to wealth creation.

We have resisted calls to reduce the public sector. And we have even turned the notion of the privatisation of state-owned enterprises into a secular heresy. The very mention of the name privatisation is akin to using a swear word. However, no one gains out of this state of affairs. No one gains from continuing to bury their heads in the sand.

The cash crunch is apparent when you visit public schools or hospitals. The schools are in disrepair, while the ability of some hospitals to provide nutritious food to patients is at risk of being compromised. Surely this is not where we want to be.

There is a tendency among the professional class in government to try to sit out the current crisis, hoping that the situation will somehow improve. While hope is a good virtue, it is not a strategy.

The strategy for turning the situation around should follow what others have done around the world. Sweden is a case in point. We see Sweden and its fellow Scandinavians as our default example of the beauty of big government. However, Sweden has moved on since electing a market-oriented prime minister.

They have embarked on a series of reforms that have borne fruit. They have reformed the pension systems, reduced unsustainable unemployment benefits, reduced business red tape and cut corporate tax to attract investment. The tax cuts have led to the return of entrepreneurs who had fled Sweden’s notoriously punitive taxes. They have allowed the private sector to take over failing public schools and hospitals.

So this shows that a large public sector weighs down on growth and prosperity and needs to be pared back, irrespective of whether you are in Sweden or Botswana.

Access Bank Botswana has delayed the release of its audited financial statements for the year ended December 2025, citing an unresolved audit matter that remains under review.

In an update to shareholders, the Botswana Stock Exchange-listed lender said publication of the results has been pushed back because of what it described as a ‘single open matter’ still being assessed as part of the audit process.

The delay extends uncertainty around the bank’s annual performance, particularly as listed companies are expected to publish audited financial statements within regulatory timelines.

Access Bank, however, sought to calm investor concerns, insisting the unresolved issue does not affect the bank’s underlying financial performance, capital adequacy, liquidity position or its ability to continue operating as a going concern.

The lender did not disclose the nature of the outstanding matter, leaving the market with limited clarity on what has held up the final audit sign-off.

The latest announcement follows an earlier cautionary notice issued on March 27 and a subsequent update on April 15, suggesting the delay has persisted for several weeks.

The board said management remains committed to governance, transparency and regulatory compliance, adding that the audit process is expected to be concluded on or before June 3, 2026.

Until then, shareholders have been advised to exercise caution when dealing in the bank’s securities.

While the bank’s reassurance may temper immediate fears over financial distress, prolonged delays in audited reporting tend to unsettle investors, particularly when details of the unresolved issue remain undisclosed.

For a bank, where confidence is currency, opacity can prove almost as damaging as weak numbers.

The focus will now shift to whether Access Bank meets its revised deadline and whether the eventual results provide clarity on what triggered the hold-up.

Botswana’s small businesses in the catering and butchery sectors are coming under mounting pressure as the suspension of slaughtering cloven-hoofed animals following the Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak disrupts beef supply chains and pushes operating costs higher.

For many small, medium and micro enterprises, beef shortages are no longer just a supply issue – they are becoming a survival issue.

Botswana Informal Sector Association secretary general Mpho Matoteng says the month-long restrictions have left many small operators scrambling to source beef from FMD-free zones, a process that comes with added transport costs, permit requirements and reduced margins.

‘Business is difficult for our people at the moment because beef is scarce,’ Matoteng told Sunday Standard.

‘For those who have been able to secure it, they have to navigate the complexities of obtaining permits and transporting slaughtered meat. This comes with significant costs.’

The strain is beginning to show across the informal food economy, where small caterers and butcheries depend heavily on affordable and predictable beef supply.

Some businesses have responded by raising prices to protect already thin margins. Others have simply shut their doors.

‘While some have opted to increase food prices, others have unfortunately shut down their businesses,’ Matoteng said.

The situation has been compounded by higher prices at the Botswana Meat Commission, leaving smaller operators with few affordable alternatives.

The outbreak’s consequences extend beyond local lunch counters and butcher blocks. Botswana’s beef export access to the European Union has also come under threat after the outbreak affected Zone 11, home to the country’s only EU-approved slaughter facility in Ramatlabama.

For SMMEs, however, the immediate concern is cash flow.

Toronto-listed junior explorer One Bullion says new high-grade assay results from its Vumba Project are strengthening the case for a potentially significant gold discovery in Botswana, as exploration interest builds in the country’s underexplored greenstone belts.

The company reported gravity-finish re-assays from five previously over-limit samples, returning a top grade of 30.8 grams per tonne gold, alongside results of 22.2 g/t, 17.55 g/t and 11.0 g/t.

The samples were collected from artisanal pits, stockpiles and dumps at Vumba and followed earlier fire-assay results that had exceeded the 10 g/t reporting threshold.

While the grades are considered strong by exploration standards, One Bullion cautioned that the results are based on selective grab sampling rather than a formal mineral resource estimate.

Still, the company believes the results are encouraging.

One Bullion said the mineralised samples span multiple artisanal workings and geological host structures across roughly 2.5 kilometres of strike, suggesting the mineralisation may extend beyond isolated pockets.

That matters because continuity is what turns interesting geology into a viable mining story.

Chief executive Adam Berk said the latest results reinforce the company’s view that Vumba hosts meaningful high-grade mineralisation warranting further work, including drilling.

The company had earlier reported visible gold and selective grab samples grading as high as 679 g/t and 207 g/t, figures that drew attention despite the early-stage nature of the exploration programme.

Beyond Vumba, One Bullion said Botswana’s environmental authorities have approved the Environmental Impact Statement for its Maitengwe Exploration Project, clearing another hurdle for exploration activity.

The developments come as Botswana seeks to revive gold exploration following the closure of Mupane Gold Mine in March 2024.

The current shortage of medical supplies in healthcare facilities country wide is exposing nurses to abuse from patients. Nurses and Mid-wives are often the first point of contact for patients and they have to bear the anger, frustration and disappointment of the public over circumstances beyond their control.

The revelation was made by Botswana Nurses Union(BONU) President Oreeditse Kelebakgosi during the commemoration of the Botswana Nurses Day in Shakawe village last week. He reiterated that the worsening situation has left many nurses and midwives vulnerable to abuse which includes insults, intimidation and in some cases, threats from members of the community.

Botswana has faced a severe, on going shortage of essential medicine supplies in public health facilities throughout 2025 and 2026. Shortages include chronic illness medications for diabetes, cancer treatment, TB and HIV/Aids.

Kelebakgosi said it was deeply unfair for health professionals who continue to serve with dedication under difficult conditions in the quest to save lives to become targets of frustration caused by systematic failure and challenges.

‘The theme today caters for fair wages, safe working conditions, adequate staffing and commitment to nursing education and training as well as respect for the nursing profession. A nurse must not beg for better conditions of services looking at the delicate role that they play in communities, individuals and national health,’ he said.

He emphasized that when nurses are empowered, lives are saved and the nation stands stronger and healthier. He stated that there is need of provision of resources for delivery of quality health care services.

Among other important issues, Kelebakgosi said one other critical path to empower nurses and midwives lives is the ratification and domestication of the ILO Nursing Personnel Convention, 1977(No.149). He said it is worrisome that Botswana remains among the few nations yet to take this progressive step.

‘The convention sets out clear standards on fair working conditions, adequate staffing, professional development and the protection and dignity of nursing personnel,’

‘By aligning our national laws and policies with this global framework, we would not only safeguard the welfare of our nurses and midwives but also strengthen the quality of care delivered to our people, hence saving lives,’ said Kelebakgosi.

BONU has also implored government to employ and absorb nurses and midwives across Botswana. There are currently 797 nurses and midwives who are unemployed. Kelebakgosi demanded immediate action to address staffing gaps in all government health institutions. He added that the current situation undermines quality health care for every citizen. He further called for government to review the Nursing and Midwifery Acct and its regulations.

‘It has been years since the Nursing and Midwifery Act and its regulations were reviewed, we call for their finalization. Please monitor this institution closely as it faces urgent challenges that require attention,’ said Kelebakgosi.

He also urged government to upgrade some primary hospitals to District hospital status with proper equipment and specialist personnel to save lives, improve access, and ensure timely service delivery.

Former President Festus Mogae’s death has triggered the expected tributes: the statistics, the statesmanship, the global acclaim. The world remembers the Nobel worthy HIV/AIDS response, the fiscal discipline, the calm stewardship of a country that often seemed too sensible for the chaos of its region.

But there is another side to Mogae’s legacy that deserves equal remembrance, one that may never fit neatly into official speeches.

It is the story of a president who understood that democracy is not tested by how leaders treat their friends, but how they treat their critics.

And I know this because I was one of his fiercest critics. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, as Editor of Botswana Guardian, I had together with my colleague Ernest Chilisa, waged a relentless editorial war against Mogae and his administration. We published stinging exposes on his role in the Owens Corning North South Carrier Water Scandal. We questioned his leadership style. One of our most controversial stories – ‘The Shrinking President’ – became symbolic of a newsroom that refused to genuflect before power.

The response from government was swift and punitive. The Mogae administration withdrew government advertising from the Botswana Guardian and its sister publication, The Midweek Sun. It was an economic embargo meat to suffocate independent journalism.

We fought back in court.

And in a judgement that would become a landmark for media freedom in Botswana, Justice Isaac Lesetedi ruled in our favour. That ruling mattered because, under Mogae, institutions still possessed enough independence to embarrass the state. Today, government still operates an undeclared advertising ban against the private media. But no media house dares challenge it in court anymore. Not because the precedent disappeared, but because confidence in institutional independence has eroded so profoundly that editors and publishers fear the judiciary itself may no longer defend the principle it once upheld.

That contrast may be one of the clearest measures of Mogae’s legacy.

Ironically, my deepest understanding of the man came not during battle, but during an unexpected act of grace. Sometime in June 2006, I received one of the most unlikely phone calls of my career. The voice on the other end of the line was from the Office of the President, informing that Mogae wanted me to join him on a trip to Japan for ‘Botswana Week’ in Tokyo.

I was stunned.

At the time, our relationship with government was openly hostile. I had recently left Botswana Guardian to co-found the Sunday Standard together with Spencer Mogapi and Professor Malema. We were struggling to survive a hostile takeover bid.

Peo Venture Capital, then jointly owned by Debswana and De Beers had funded the newspaper. But the late Louis Nchindo had approached Peo seeking to buy their controlling stake in the Sunday Standard. We were given 30 days to match his offer or lose the newspaper.

It was a terrifying moment. Nchindo’s influence within Botswana’s corporate and political establishment was immense. No commercial bank wanted to antagonize a man so closely associated with Debswana by financing us against him.

So when Mogae’s invitation arrived, Japan was honestly the last place I wanted to be. But I accepted, anyway. And somewhere in Tokyo, during what began as a casual conversation, Mogae asked how the Sunday Standard was doing. Eventually the discussion drifted towards Nchindo’s attempted takeover.

I expected indifference. Perhaps even quite satisfaction. Instead, Mogae surprised me. He asked why we had not approached Citizen Entrepreneurial Development Agency (CEDA) for funding.

I laughed off the idea. Given our long and bitter history with government, I told him it was inconceivable that a state-owned institution would finance people who had spent years attacking the presidency.

Mogae disagreed. Firmly. ‘The fact that you have a hostile relationship with government does not make you any less Motswana or patriotic’, he told me. ‘We have had an adversarial history and we will probably have and adversarial future. It is the occupational hazard of the careers we have chosen, but that does not take away your citizenship rights to benefit from citizen empowerment schemes.’

That sentence revealed more about Festus Mogae than a thousand polished tributes ever could. He understood something many African leaders never do: the state does not belong to the ruling party. Government resources are not rewards for loyalty and citizenship rights do not expire because one is inconvenient to power.

CEDA eventually funded us. We bought out Peo. And the Sunday Standard survived.

At Mogae’s memorial service this week, the then CEDA Managing Director, Dr. Thapelo Matsheka publicly confirmed the behind the scenes pressure surrounding the decision. ‘Rre Nchindo had leveraged his friendship to President Mogae and would come heavy on me’, Matsheka recalled.

‘Rre Nchindo was livid and went to report at Mogae’s office. I was again called to explain myself. Mogae understood my position and let it be.’

Then came the line that perfectly captured Mogae’s dry humor and appreciation for institutional independence.

‘I reminded Rre Mogae later, when he had a fallout with Nchindo, that if he had interfered, Nchindo would have been using the paper to bash him, and he laughed.’

That laughter matters. Because it reflected a rare confidence in democratic contestation, confidence in criticism, confidence in institutions stronger that personalities. In fact, he publicly stated that he believed in strong institutions and not strong men.

Mogae was not a perfect president. No honest tribute should pretend otherwise. His administration could be cold, technocratic and occasionally heavy-handed. His government did punish the media economically. Many journalists, myself included experienced that hostility directly. But even at his most adversarial, there remained lines he would not cross. He understood that institutions matter more than temporary political victories. He understood that courts must sometimes rule against the state. He understood that empowerment institutions should not become political weapons. He understood that a newspaper critical of government still has a right to exist. And perhaps most importantly, he understood that leadership requires enough self-confidence to tolerate dissent.

That culture feels increasingly endangered today. In an era were criticism is often treated as treason, where institutions are expected to kneel before political power and where access to state resources increasingly appears contingent on political loyalty, Mogae’s conduct now feels almost unfashionably democratic.

This may ultimately become one of his greatest legacies. Not merely that he governed Botswana competently. But that he governed it without demanding that everyone become his poodle.

It was a tough professional debut for Ntungamili Raguin at the ITF (International Tennis Federation) Gaborone M15 tournament this past week.

The 17-year-old lost his first professional match 7 – 5, 3 – 6, 5 – 7 against USA’s Preston Brown. Despite a spirited fight, against a much taller, physically imposing and experienced professional opponent, Ntungamili’s inexperience was all there apparent to see.

A nervous start, which was compounded later by faults which led to a loss of crucial points made things difficult for the teenager. In his post-match interview, the youngster alluded that the early nerves had taken a lot out of him. So much, he says, he felt fatigued towards the end of the deciding set.

In the end, this cost him the match as he failed to make it count when he was serving for the match. Despite leading 5 – 2, the youngster somehow failed to clinch the match as Brown fought back to eventually snatch it.

Reflecting on the match, Raguin’s coach Killian Sinclair said ‘he was disappointed but happy.’ ‘It shows we still have a lot to work on. I think he’s got a lot of good things, a lot of character. He tried very hard until the end, which is one of the most important things.’

‘The main goal we set when we came here was about how he presented himself and the attitude he had, and I think that was a success today. Especially since he didn’t convert one of his match points, of course. But overall, I think it was a positive match. Hopefully he doesn’t take it too hard. I’m disappointed but happy.’

This being his first professional match, and against a physically mature and imposing opponent, there were however good takeaways. This was an experience the teenager needed as he charts his way towards professional tennis.

‘It’s good because it shows that there are many different types of tennis players. Today he played someone who’s very, very tall, very heavy, serves very, very well. That’s the reality of tennis – there are a lot of people like this, and in juniors you don’t get that experience so much.’

‘So, it’s a very good thing to play some men’s tennis now, because that’s the goal. As much as we want to do well at the French Open, we have goals that go way beyond juniors. It’s important to get the experience now so that he doesn’t have that shock later,’ Sinclair says.

While losing from a winning position in his first professional match was hard to take, glimpses of huge potential Raguin has were all out for everyone to see. In fact, as he sets sights in competing on playing the men’s grand slams and competing well in them in the future, Batswana can be excited.

Regarding the many faults which cost Raguin some valuable points, coach Sinclair is not worried. He says the faults were expected. He attributes the faults to works they are doing to improve his play as well as the pressure of playing an experienced quality opponent.

‘It’s partly by design because we’ve been working on improving his shot quality, and when you work to improve your shot quality, it comes with a few more mistakes.’

‘But it’s also because of the quality of his opponent. Today he played a professional player – it’s different than playing the juniors that you’ve seen him play here. So, it’s a mix of both, I would say.’

Even more interesting for coach Sinclair was how the youngster is handling the pressure. ‘Mentally, he’s been really making strides recently. It’s tough because the better he plays, the higher the level. The better he plays, the more pressure he feels – the pressure from others, or in general pressure for himself, what he wants to achieve. It’s been a little time for him to adapt to that. But he’s going through it and he’s on a good path I would say.’

With the first professional match now behind him, Raguin will be looking forward to his next outing. This will be this coming week when he returns to the court again for his second professional match. For him, these matches also serve as preparations for the upcoming Rolland Garros Junior Championships, Davies Cup Africa Group IV and hopefully Junior Wimbledon.

‘We have still next week here, next week as well, and we go straight to the French Open after that. He has his final exams in school – he’s still in school. Then we have a small break with, or break here’s the Davis Cup in Kenya. He’s really excited about that. And then we’re gonna go to England, and depending if he’s in or not,’ Sinclair says.

As for the young Raguin, his eyes are set on the next ITF Gaborone M15 match. His wish is just to do his best and make the country proud. As for what the future holds, only time will tell.

There are moments when a nation buries a leader, only to discover that he is still speaking.

When news broke that former president, Festus Mogae had died, Botswana paused. But as the tributes flowed, something unexpected happened. HIV/AIDS returned.

Not in hospitals. Not in statistics buried deep inside ministry reports and not in donor conferences or technical presentations.

It returned in conversations. Suddenly, Batswana are talking again, really talking about the disease that once stalked every homestead, every cattle post and every family gathering.

On radio call-in programmes, people remember the funerals. In taxis, passengers recall entire neighborhoods losing young men and women in the space of weeks. At workplaces, older employees speak about a time when attendance registers slowly became lists of the dead.

For the first time in years, HIV/AIDS is no longer a ‘health sector issue’. It is personal again.

And in a strange and deeply emotional way, Mogae is leading the conversation once more.

In death, the former president is accomplishing what years of awareness campaigns have struggled to do, he has forced Botswana to remember what HIV/AIDS once meant.

For younger generations, it is difficult to fully grasp the fear that once consumed Botswana. There was a time when funerals were so commonplace that black mourning cloth seemed like the national dress code. Teachers disappeared from classrooms; police officers vanished from police stations. Every family carried grief.

Botswana was not merely fighting a health crisis. It was fighting for survival. By the late 1990s and early 2000s, HIV prevalence had become so severe that international observers openly questioned whether the country could survive the epidemic intact. The infection rate was among the highest in the world. Life expectancy collapsed dramatically. Hospitals overflowed. Some feared Botswana would become a hollowed-out state populated by orphans and the elderly.

Across much of Africa at the time, HIV/AIDS remained wrapped in stigma and shame and denial. Denialism and silence infected political leadership across parts of the continent. Across the border in South Africa, Thabo Meki’s Thabo Mbeki’s HIV/AIDS denialism was institutional, highly intellectualized, and deeply rooted in post-colonial suspicion. Rather than a simple rejection of science, it was a complex ideological stance that actively weaponized state policy against orthodox medicine, resulting in an estimated 330,000 avoidable deaths. Her Minister of Health Manto Tshabalala-Msimang

earned the moniker ‘Dr. Beetroot’, because she rejected the scientific consensus on antiretroviral drugs (ARVs), continuously claiming they were highly toxic and Western conspiracies designed to harm Africans. She publicly championed a diet of beetroot, garlic, lemon, and African potato as legitimate cures and preventions for AIDS. She actively blocked and delayed the national rollout of life-saving ARV programs.

In Swaziland,King Mswati III, while not questioning the existence of the virus, Africa’s last absolute monarch long displayed governance-level denialism regarding its transmission.Rather than accepting epidemiological models focusing on structural and clinical intervention, he treated the epidemic purely as a moral failing.In 2001, to combat the world’s highest HIV prevalence rate, he invoked Umchwasho-a traditional five-year chastity rite that banned all women under 18 from having sex or shaking hands with men under penalty of a fine (one cow). The policy completely distracted from required condom distribution and clinical public health messaging.

Further up north, in Gambia, the then presidentYahya Jammehtook denialism a step further by claiming personal spiritual powers over the virus. Jammeh claimed that Western medicine was entirely unnecessary to treat HIV/AIDS. In Tanzania, President John Magufuli systematically suppressed health infrastructure that targeted marginalized populations, denying the efficacy of targeted HIV programming. His government banned the registration and operation of specialized drop-in centers and suspended the distribution of lubricants used for HIV prevention, falsely claiming that expanding access to these medical prevention tools promoted homosexuality.

Leaders avoided confronting the disease directly. Communities whispered about it and families concealed it.

Then came Mogae.

The soft-spoken economist did something rare for a leader of his generation. He spoke openly about HIV/AIDS with brutal honesty. He did not moralize it. He confronted it head on as a national emergency.

His honesty changed everything. Under his leadership, Botswana pioneered one of Africa’s most ambitious antiretroviral treatment programmes. The country rolled out free antiretroviral therapy at a time when many developing nations were still debating whether such treatment was financially viable. Botswana became a global model for aggressive HIV intervention, earning admiration from international health agencies and researchers. But statistics alone cannot capture what that Mogae’s leadership achieved.

What he really gave Botswana was hope and a fighting chance. He convinced ordinary Batswana that getting tested was not surrender. He encouraged families to talk openly. He normalised treatment at a time when many infected people still hid in fear. He shifted HIV/AIDS from being a whispered shame to a fight that belonged to the whole country. Botswana began clawing itself back from disaster. Because of his efforts, Botswana today maintains some of the best HIV treatment outcomes in the world. Viral suppression rates remain globally respected. Antiretroviral access is universal. Thousands of lives have been saved.

Yet beneath those achievements lies a quieter and more dangerous problem. The younger generation is forgetting. Many young Batswana were born after the darkest years of the epidemic. They grew up in a Botswana where HIV was increasingly manageable, where treatment existed, when infected people live long and productive lives.

That success, while extraordinary, has created an unintended consequence. The terror faded. And when fear fades without equally powerful prevention education replacing it, complacency grows. This is the danger now confronting Botswana.

Data from local youth advocacy groups like Renale Seabe (RESENO) highlights that the ‘First 90’ (the percentage of people who know their HIV status) is lagging severely behind in the younger generation. A significant portion of young people aged 15-24 have reported not receiving an HIV test in the previous 12 months, indicating a breakdown in proactive testing outreach.

Public health experts note that communication models used in educational efforts have historically relied heavily on Western experiences. They often fail to incorporate local cultural traditions based on respect, cooperation, and consultation.

Because Botswana achieved massive success with viral load suppression and free Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) programs, public messaging shifted heavily toward treatment adherence rather than active prevention. This has normalized the virus, inadvertently reducing the perceived urgency of prevention among younger demographics who did not witness the peak of the epidemic.

Current messaging is failing to sufficiently address the modern intersections of substance use and risk. The Ministry of Health explicitly warned that alcohol and substance abuse have become major unaddressed drivers of new infections among adolescent girls and young women.

Nationwide district-level consultations for the fourth National Strategic Framework (NSF4) revealed that women and youth are avoiding sexual health services due to fear of intimidation, judgment, and discrimination by healthcare providers. This highlights a severe breakdown in trust that standard messaging has failed to repair.

Many campaigns inform without deeply touching people. And HIV cannot be fought with information alone. It must be fought emotionally. That may ultimately be the strange power of this moment. Mogae’s passing has reminded Botswana that HIV/AIDS is not merely a medical issue. It is a human story. A story of mothers burying children, grandparents raising orphans, of communities surviving grief, of courage. And of a nation that once stood dangerously close to collapse before deciding to fight back together. Perhaps that is why the country is reacting so emotionally. Beneath the mourning for Mogae is also the rediscovery of collective memory. People were not simply remembering a former president. They were remembering survival itself. There is something profoundly symbolic about the fact that HIC/AIDS returned to national conversation during the week of Mogae’s death. Almost as if the man who once rallied Botswana against extinction was delivering one final warning before departing. Do not become complacent. Do not forget what this disease once did. The warning could not have come at a more critical time. Globally, donor fatigue is growing. Resources are tightening. Prevention campaigns are weakening in many countries. Botswana faces mounting challenges sustaining momentum as new social pressures emerge among younger populations. The danger is no longer dramatic collapse, it is slow erosion of awareness, prevention behavior and urgency. And epidemics often return quietly before societies realise what is happening. That is why Mogae’s legacy now feels larger than politics. He is remembered not only because he led Botswana during difficult years, but because he gave the country the courage to confront an uncomfortable truth when denial would have been easier.

As funeral speeches fade and national mourning slowly ends. Botswana faces an important choice. It can allow the moment of reflection to pass quietly back into routine.

Or it can treat this emotional awakening as the beginning of a renewed national conversation about HIV prevention, youth outreach and collective responsibility. Because the fight Mogae helped lead is not over. And perhaps the most remarkable thing about his legacy is that even from the grave, Festus Mogae is still forcing Botswana to fight for its future.