Category: The Bangkok Post

The creation of a Thai sovereign wealth fund (SWF) has been debated in the country for several years.

Most recently, Supavud Saicheua, chairman of the National Economic and Social Development Council, reiterated his support for the proposal, pointing to Singapore’s success as a model. Established in 1981, Singapore’s SWF has grown to manage assets of roughly US$1.2 trillion, contributing returns equivalent to 20% of government revenue.

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking also voiced its backing, viewing an SWF as an additional tool to manage capital flows and foreign exchange.

Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association, said such a fund could help raise demand for US dollars, giving the central bank another instrument to stabilise the baht and manage currency fluctuations.

He also urged the regulator to develop new instruments to maintain financial stability in a rapidly changing global environment.

What is a sovereign wealth fund?

These funds are set up by a government to manage the nation’s assets. The key features of SWFs are state ownership and financing by sources such as international reserves, revenue from oil exports (in the case of oil-producing countries), fiscal surpluses (with a portion allocated for the fund), or returns from state investments.

An SWF can invest in various asset classes such as equities, bonds, real estate and foreign funds.

The returns from SWFs can be used to cushion against future economic crises and serve as a mechanism to save natural resource revenues (such as Norway’s oil income) for future generations. Many countries operate SWFs, including Norway, the United Arab Emirates, China and Singapore.

What is the difference between international reserves and an SWF?

An SWF focuses on investing in assets that generate high returns while addressing the country’s long-term goals. These funds typically invest for the long term (often more than 20 years), can accept higher investment risks and can tolerate short-term losses. SWFs tend to invest in less liquid assets such as common stocks and private sector debt instruments in order to maximise returns.

In contrast, international reserves are focused on short-term investments, generally with an average maturity of less than five years. They have limited risk tolerance, prioritise minimising short-term losses and invest mainly in highly liquid assets such as foreign currencies and gold. Their purpose is to ensure exchange rate stability and provide immediate liquidity in the event of a currency crisis.

Does an SWF pose risks to a country’s international reserves?

Somjai Phagaphasvivat, an international economics analyst, said managing an SWF is not easy. If poorly managed, he said such a fund can affect international reserves.

SWFs have existed for a long time, and while some countries have suffered losses from mismanagement, others have generated profits, with Singapore a notable example, attributed to highly skilled personnel capable of managing such a large fund.

Mr Somjai recommended a clear bottom line: “If we invest in something risky, it must not jeopardise the majority of our reserves.”

Supporters of establishing a Thailand SWF argue concerns over the potential impact on reserves are an excuse to oppose its creation. However, he said an SWF does not use all of a country’s reserves — it only manages the surplus portion of reserves exceeding a necessary level in order to maximise returns.

International reserves play a vital role in maintaining macroeconomic stability, particularly as a buffer against economic crises, stabilising the value of the baht and in meeting external debt obligations during emergencies.

Typically funding for an SWF comes from reserves exceeding the internationally recognised adequacy level (as determined by the Bank of Thailand), or from fiscal surpluses.

Through careful consideration and guidance by clear criteria, Mr Somjai said an SWF can channel surplus funds into generating long-term returns, without affecting the core functions or stability of the country’s international reserves.

He said the most critical challenge is Thailand’s inexperience in independently managing funds for diversified global investments. However, the country does have some foundational elements that can be built upon.

Thailand has a few institutions with experience in managing large funds, as the Bank of Thailand manages international reserves, while the Social Security Office and Government Pension Fund have expertise in both domestic and international investments.

Mr Somjai said what matters most is not only past experience, but establishing sound governance from the outset, consisting of three prongs:

Independence: Management of an SWF must be completely separate from politics to prevent interference and misuse of funds for inefficient populist projects.

Transparency: Clear laws and mechanisms must be in place to ensure public disclosure of investment activities and returns.

Expertise: The fund must have a professional board and management team with global investment expertise, guided by well-defined investment policies.

What are some examples of successful SWFs?

Singapore and Norway are both examples of successful SWFs, though their structures and factors for success differ according to each country’s context.

Norway’s fund is called the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), but is widely known as the Oil Fund. It was established with a long-term goal: to transform revenues from oil and natural gas sales into wealth for future generations, ensuring the income from finite resources does not benefit only the current generation.

Separation from politics is the most critical factor. Norway has a strong governance system, where parliament and the Finance Ministry set broad investment policy guidelines. However, the day-to-day fund management — such as asset selection and stock trading — is delegated to Norges Bank Investment Management, an independent unit of Norway’s central bank, ensuring professional investment decisions free from political interference.

There is also transparency and accountability, as every investment of GPFG can be closely scrutinised. Investment data and returns are regularly disclosed to the public on a quarterly and annual basis, allowing citizens and parliament to monitor operations at all times.

The GPFG also has strict guidelines prohibiting investments in companies involved in human rights violations, arms manufacturing, tobacco or environmental destruction. This enhances the fund’s credibility and legitimacy on a global scale.

Meanwhile, Singapore’s SWF structure consists of two main funds with similar roles: Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and Temasek.

Both are independent private entities managed by professional teams. They are not considered direct government agencies, even though the Finance Ministry is a shareholder.

GIC acts as the manager of Singapore’s foreign reserves, focusing on globally diversified investments to generate long-term returns, while Temasek Holdings is a holding company that makes strategic investments in domestic and international companies, aiming to create added value and improve the management of those companies.

Despite their high degree of independence, both funds are supervised by the president of Singapore, who has the authority to review board and senior management appointments. This ensures reserve funds are not misused and investment decisions do not adversely affect the country’s capital.

Operating as private companies allows GIC and Temasek to make investment decisions quickly and flexibly in global markets, investing efficiently in emerging industries, unlike funds strictly regulated by the state.

Although the structures differ, both Singapore and Norway have achieved success based on similar principles: separating fund management from political influence, having clear long-term goals and ensuring professional governance.

As Swarovski celebrates “130 Years Of Joy” throughout 2025, expect the maison’s majestic waterfowl gracing the anniversary editions.

Global creative director Giovanna Engelbert has reinterpreted the Swarovski Swan for statement pieces under the commemorative Vienna Collection.

“The swan is a beautiful, almost mythical creature that represents grace, beauty, eternal love and transformation. It was chosen as Swarovski’s emblem because it highlights our eternal love of crystal and the elegance of our artistry and creations,” said the global creative director since 2020.

The logo originally featured an edelweiss as a symbol of purity and beauty. Swarovski modernised its trademark in 1989 with a swan, inspired by the works of Gustav Klimt.

In 2021, Engelbert evolved the logo by placing the swan inside an octagon with strong edges representing the savoir-faire of Swarovski’s artisans.

The know-how includes meticulous crystal setting and high-jewellery techniques, used in crafting the Vienna Collection.

Luminous clear crystals contrast with ruthenium accents in the architectural designs while the kinetic energy of abstract wings and feather-like forms evoke the swan’s graceful movements. Pavé detailing and stones in mixed cuts and sizes intensify the light in each piece.

“I wanted to pay homage to the Swarovski Swan by imagining it in an abstract way, taking flight — a symbol of movement, energy and reinvention. These designs are meant to feel classical in spirit, but with a sharp, contemporary edge that feels alive. They transcend time, taking us from 1895 to 2025 — a journey between heritage and the future,” said Engelbert.

A prelude to the epic, Daniel Swarovski invented an electric cutting machine and applied for a patent in 1891. The revolutionary technology allowed cutting jewellery stones into a variety of shapes and facets.

A new era of crystal production then began in 1895, when Swarovski partnered with Franz Weis and Armand Kosmann in establishing their business in the small alpine village of Wattens in Tyrol, Austria.

With its own melting furnace, the company has been producing crystal glass in-house since 1913. Innovative cutting and polishing techniques further made Swarovski Crystals unrivalled in the way they capture the light and refract it with an intense brilliance, clarity, radiance and depth of colour.

Today, new crystal cuts, shades and sizes are still conceived at the historical headquarters in Wattens. Other materials include Swarovski Created Diamonds with the same optical, chemical and physical attributes as mined stones; and Swarovski Zirconia with the Round Pure Brilliance cut, comparable to Tolkowsky Ideal Cut.

Crystals in various cuts as well as Swarovski Zirconia shimmer on various pieces from the Vienna Collection such as the ruthenium-plated choker with a pear-shape crystal at the tip enhancing the radiance.

The designs of the sculptural choker, matching ear cuffs and bangle are inspired by the swan’s graceful wings.

Octagon-cut crystals and feather-like wings characterise a standout necklace while a fringe-like effect on ear cuffs captures the delicate nature of feathers.

A ring is designed with the swan’s head and neck wrapping around the finger along with dramatic feather-like strands.

The emblematic swans from the Vienna Collection have seemingly migrated to the autumn/winter 2025 collection. The jewellery are designed with the same mixed-cut silhouettes in ruthenium and clear crystals, to further celebrate Swarovski’s 130th anniversary.

The Bank of Thailand is expected to continue its easing cycle for the rest of 2025 amid a slowing economy. It has maintained its growth forecasts at 2.3% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026. Our 2025 forecast is in line with the central bank’s. However, recent political instability adds downside risks to growth.

We therefore expect the central bank to lower its benchmark policy rate by a further 50 basis points, bringing it to a terminal rate of 1.00% by the end of 2026. We see this delivered in two rounds — one by the end of 2025, most likely in December, and another in the second half of 2026.

Deflationary pressures are mounting. Headline inflation has undershot even our modest expectations so far in 2025, with consumer prices falling by 0.7% year-on-year in July and rising just 0.2% on average in the first seven months of the year. As a result, we now expect no change in consumer prices on average for 2025 — down from our previous forecast of an increase of 0.6% — and see headline inflation ending the year close to zero.

Moreover, the baht has strengthened by around 7% to trade at 32.20 to the US dollar, its strongest since February 2022. In its latest monetary policy statement, the central bank highlighted concerns about the baht’s impact on export competitiveness. These concerns have likely grown since the US imposed 19% tariffs on imports of Thai goods.

That said, monetary easing alone will not be enough to stem appreciation pressure on the baht, especially if investor confidence in the dollar erodes further. The US Federal Reserve is facing increasing political pressure from President Donald Trump, who has publicly and repeatedly advocated for looser monetary policy.

Any US rate cuts could be perceived by markets as politically motivated, potentially undermining confidence in the Fed’s independence, especially if rate cuts occur alongside fiscal slippage or policy uncertainty.

Accordingly, we maintain our forecast for the baht to trade in the range between 32.00 and 33.50 range for the rest of the year.

The Department of Airports has announced an increase in the passenger service charge – commonly known as ‘airport tax’ – for outbound passengers at six regional airports in Thailand.

Both domestic and international travellers will now pay an additional 25 baht per person.

The airports are Krabi, Surat Thani, Ubon Ratchathani, Khon Kaen, Nakhon Si Thammarat and Phitsanulok.

The fee for international passengers has risen from 400 baht to 425 baht per person, while domestic passengers will now pay 75 baht per person, up from 50 baht. The fee is included in the ticket price.

Local media reported that passengers travelling between domestic airports have already seen the airport tax listed at 75 baht per person under the ‘fees and taxes’ section, in line with the department’s announcement, which took effect on Wednesday.

The increase applies only to airports that have introduced three new passenger processing technologies: automated boarding pass checks, self-service check-in kiosks, and self-service baggage drop systems.

The idea of braiding sailing cables, fixed at both ends with rivets, and shaping a gold clasp like a marine carabiner led to the creation of the Force 10 bracelet in 1966.

Maison Fred has enriched the interchangeable buckle of its iconic jewellery with a 0.5 carat diamond in the exclusive Hero Cut with a diamond pavé amplifying the radiance of the central stone.

Launched in 2022, the Fred Hero Cut is inspired by the contours of both a sailboat and a shield. Recognised and certified by the Gemological Institute of America, its brilliance is fully revealed in each of its 36 facets.

Thanks to the meticulous faceting, the Fred Hero Cut ensures the diamond is of absolutely flawless clarity without any shadows.

The number of facets is a nod to 1936, when founder Fred Samuel — the Contemporary Creative Jeweller — opened his first boutique in Paris.

As his French parents emigrated to Argentina, he was born in Buenos Aires on Aug 3, 1908. During his childhood, he enjoyed holidaying in the seaside town of Mar del Plata, and after returning to France he fell in love with the Côte d’Azur.

His passion for the sea is reflected in the jewellery designs, such as the Force 10, which indicates a storm when referencing the Beaufort Wind Scale.

Synonymous with endurance, strength and will power, the new Force 10 bracelet in a large model comes in two versions with a steel cable and white gold buckle or both elements in pink gold.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul on Thursday assured the House of Representatives that the probe into a collapsed road near Vajira Hospital in Bangkok’s Dusit district would be conducted both independently and transparently.

He said he has no business ties to Sino-Thai Engineering and Construction (STECON), founded by his father, which is part of the joint venture contracted to build the Purple Line near the treacherous sinkhole.

People’s Party (PP) MP for Bangkok, Paramet Worawitthayaraksan, pressed Mr Anutin to speak clearly about how the government would take action against the contractors over the incident and whether it would seek compensation for work delays.

“Will they be prosecuted, told to pay compensation or blacklisted? Will they be fined for delays in the project delivery?” Mr Paramet asked.

Mr Anutin said he sold his shares in the company through the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2019 in full compliance with all legal requirements for political office holders when he became aware the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) could secure a significant share of House seats.

The prime minister said he has no involvement with the company and has never used his influence for its benefit.

It was Mr Anutin’s first response to a fresh interpellation since he assumed office.

Founded by Chavarat Charnvirakul, Mr Anutin’s father, STECON was listed on the stock market in 1993 with a registered capital of 300 million baht.

On the probe into the collapsed road, he said the Ministry of Transport will be looking into the incident with the help of a committee comprising specialists and representatives from the Public Works Department and City Hall.

The investigation would be based on engineering evidence, he said, noting that if negligence or recklessness are proven, contractors would be held accountable.

He said the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA) is working on repairs, and traffic is expected to resume on Oct 9, 2025.

ALMAD Group (the group) officially launched September 21, in Hong Kong, is dedicated to harnessing tomorrow’s opportunities across nine transformative paradigms. Founded by renowned entrepreneur Adrian Cheng, the group’s forward-looking portfolio strategically focuses on the digital space and emerging markets, including Mainland China, ASEAN countries, the Middle East and beyond, along the following three directions:

Investing in transformative industries – including culture, entertainment, sports, media, healthcare, commercial management and cultural tourism in emerging markets.

Breaking boundaries in digital and virtual assets.

Globalising the K11 by AC cultural ecosystem.

Adrian Cheng, Founder and Executive Chairman of ALMAD Group, said:’We are living in an era of profound change in the global economy, where new frontiers are emerging at an unprecedented pace. From ideation two years ago, we have been determined to build ALMAD Group as a movement propelling this shift, investing in transformative industries in emerging markets such as ASEAN and the Middle East, while advancing globally in digital assets and cultural industries.’

He added: ‘Our mission is clear: to build what the next generation needs and to shape a future economy filled with possibilities.’

Investing in Transformative Industries in Emerging Markets

Headquartered in Hong Kong, ALMAD Group strives to become the international hub’s iconic global platform and deliver long-term growth with a worldwide footprint. Its industry priorities span culture, entertainment, sports, media, healthcare, commercial management and cultural tourism. These targeted industries not only demonstrate strong commercial viability today but also have the potential to shape the global economy and society over the next twenty years, serving the needs of Gen Z and Gen Alpha in advance.

‘We firmly believe that Hong Kong is a resilient community with a global outlook, widely recognised as a bridge to the world,’ Adrian Cheng stated. ‘As ALMAD Group’s movement evolves, I look forward to unveiling more projects in the near future, showcasing the group’s commitment to transforming vision into action.’

Breaking Boundaries in Digital and Virtual Assets

ALMAD Group aspires to stand at the forefront of Web3 financial innovation, with a forward-looking strategy to explore investments in digital assets, real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation and other emerging opportunities, while remaining attentive to the evolving market and regulatory landscape. Applications leveraging blockchain technology and immersive digital experiences will also be explored across industries, as this wave of creativity unlocks new possibilities.

As a dedicated supporter of new frontiers, Adrian Cheng has long provided early-stage funding to empower technology start-ups. Previous successes include Xiaohongshu, XPeng Motors, Micro Connect and others, enabling these companies to develop groundbreaking solutions and achieve commercial success. He will continue to guide the group’s financial and technology investment strategies, driving dynamic growth to shape the economy of tomorrow.

Globalising K11 by AC Cultural Ecosystem

K11 by AC is a cultural brand and a member of ALMAD Group, driven by Adrian Cheng’s extensive professional experience and his visionary management team. The brand is redefining the cultural landscape by managing retail assets and art and cultural districts for a diverse range of landlords. Its core differentiation lies in cultural content, co-creation of brand experience, commercial management and strong CRM capabilities targeting younger and more affluent demographics.

In addition, K11 by AC’s Anime IP business, Experience 11, is rapidly expanding in Mainland China and the Middle East. It curates experiences with leading Anime IPs from around the world, leveraging its global art network and expertise. This segment strengthens the cultural ecosystem by capturing the fast-growing ACGN (Animation, Comic, Game and Novel) and ‘two-dimensions’ industries, highly popular among Gen Z, Gen Alpha and others.

K11 by AC is also scaling its Gentry Club business – a high-privacy luxury city club for cultural lovers themed around artisanal lifestyle.

A Continued Journey of Business Innovation

ALMAD Group embodies Adrian Cheng’s latest endeavour in pioneering models and ecosystem innovation. He launched K11 in 2008, the world’s first cultural-commerce model seamlessly integrating art, design and retail. His leadership has driven transformative projects, including Victoria Dockside, Hong Kong’s US$2.6 billion global art and cultural district featuring K11 MUSEA.

As ALMAD Group expands Adrian Cheng’s business ecosystem into new and exciting segments, it continues to attract mission-aligned entrepreneurs and strategic investors, advancing a collective journey to realise tangible opportunities.

Former deputy national police chief Pol Gen Surachate Hakparn, also known as “Big Joke”, has filed a criminal defamation lawsuit against national police chief Pol Gen Kittharath Punpetch over allegations of links to a Chulalongkorn University law exam scandal.

The lawsuit, submitted on Wednesday at the Songkhla Administrative Court, cites the publication of misleading information implying Pol Gen Surachate’s involvement in the theft of exam papers, which he claims has harmed his reputation and honour.

The controversy dates back to March this year, when cyber police arrested figures connected to the Betflik online gambling network, ultimately uncovering communications among officers about removing exam papers from Chulalongkorn’s evening law programme.

Kanittha Lertbanjerdwong, also known as Dr Nid, was identified as a key intermediary who claimed to act as Pol Gen Surachate’s personal secretary. According to the investigation team, evidence indicates she delivered stolen exam papers to Pol Gen Surachate’s legal team for completion before returning them to examination authorities. Pol Gen Surachate maintains he never personally handled the papers.

Investigators from the Technology Crime Suppression Division 1 subsequently gathered sufficient evidence to issue warrants for three suspects, including Ms Kanittha, who was arrested in April. The police also revealed that a mobile phone of Pol Lt Col Karit Pariyaket, a close aide of Pol Gen Surachate, contained Line chats detailing the division of roles in the exam fraud. Some messages mentioned Pol Gen Surachate, while three other officers were involved in preparing and returning exams. Financial transactions tied to Pol Lt Col Karit and others were also identified.

Pol Gen Surachate stated that he has never been involved in any way and has never been formally charged in the case, yet his name has continued to be repeatedly implicated.

“I have filed criminal defamation charges against the national police chief because false information has been published linking me to the exam scandal,” he said. “Although my name was not mentioned directly, the reports clearly implied my involvement, damaging my reputation and honour. I must use the law to protect myself.”

A police disciplinary committee fired Pol Gen Surachate in March over his alleged involvement in an online gambling network.

Harit ‘Keng’ Buayoi is a model and rising actor who stars in the hit Boys’ Love supernatural thriller Khemjira The Series (2025) alongside Napatsakorn ‘Namping’ Pingmuang. He first gained attention for his supporting roles in The Paradise of Thorns (2024) and from a viral clip of him as a ‘handsome Thai teacher’.

Teacher goes viral

Keng grew up in rural Phayao and graduated with a degree in Thai from the University of Phayao.

In his freshman year, he started dreaming about joining the entertainment industry and sought out opportunities, from modelling to competitions. He even put his studies on hold and moved to Bangkok, but the Covid-19 situation eventually forced him back home. Thinking his path was to become a teacher, he trained at a community school.

But then in 2021, an unassuming TikTok video changed everything. The internet discovered the ‘handsome teacher’ and he went viral overnight.

‘Jingna’ role changes outlookThat attention opened doors. DomundiTV noticed him, and GDH later cast him as Jingna in The Paradise of Thorns (2024) starring alongside Jeff Satur and Engfa Waraha.

Playing a durian farmer searching for stability, Keng connected deeply with the role.

Like Jingna, he came from an ethnic minority and once believed life was bound by fate. ‘But after playing him,’ Keng reflected in The Momentum, ‘I’ve learned to push beyond my limits. If I succeed, my family will live comfortably.’

Shining as a shaman

His biggest breakthrough came in 2025 with Khemjira The Series, where he starred as Master Paran, a gifted young shaman protecting Khemjira from a deadly family curse.

The series became iQIYI’s most-watched Thai drama worldwide, and the ‘handsome shaman’ hashtag racked up over 2.4 million mentions on social media.

Bridging gaps as an actor

Keng’s choice of roles often explores identity, from portraying ethnic minorities to LGBTQ+ characters.

As a Tai Lue actor, he hopes to raise awareness of his heritage. ‘Being a minority and reaching this point makes me proud,’ he said.

He also admitted initial hesitation in taking LGBTQ+ roles, as his hometown remains conservative. But after his family accepted it, others began to understand too. ‘At least my work helps bridge the gap between old beliefs and new ones,’ he shared with The Cloud.

From a rural village in Phayao to starring in Thailand’s most-watched series, Keng Harit’s journey is proof that perseverance and openness can turn limitations into new possibilities.

The rivalry between the United States and China has become the defining contest of the 21st century. Barely two decades ago, Washington and Beijing were partners in prosperity. America’s support for China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 epitomised the high-water mark of engagement, reflecting the belief that economic integration would lead to greater political cooperation. Today, that partnership has morphed into suspicion and confrontation. Relations between the United States and China have deteriorated so swiftly that many observers now describe them as locked in a “new Cold War”. The more pressing question, however, is not whether this analogy holds, but whether confrontation can be managed short of outright conflict.

China’s economic ascent was initially encouraged, even celebrated, by the US and its allies. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Beijing was seen as a responsible stakeholder, integrating into global supply chains, attracting foreign investment, and lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty. For a time, it seemed the promise of globalisation was being realised. But confidence gave way to concern as China began to flex its newfound power more openly.

The 2008 Beijing Olympics symbolised China’s national revival and confidence both at home and abroad. Four years later, Beijing’s construction of artificial islands and militarisation of the South China Sea unsettled the Southeast Asia region and signalled a bolder strategic posture. President Xi Jinping’s rise to power appears to be the decisive turning point. Within his first year, he launched the Belt and Road Initiative, a sprawling infrastructure and investment drive that revived both overland and maritime Silk Roads as platforms of influence.

The US was initially slow to react. President Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia” promised to rebalance American strategy, but implementation lagged. Even when the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled overwhelmingly in 2016 against China’s maritime claims, Beijing ignored the verdict without meaningful consequence. It was Donald Trump’s first presidency that marked the sharp break.

In his first term, Mr Trump’s imposition of tariffs and restrictions on advanced technology started a trade and tech war. His moves reflected a deeper political transformation in the US, as decades of scepticism toward globalisation and free trade moved from the margins to the mainstream. “America First” nationalism, once a fringe doctrine, became the organising principle of US foreign and economic policy. By his second term, Mr Trump could declare sweeping tariffs not as a sudden departure but as the logical culmination of a longstanding geostrategic campaign.

At home, the Trumpian movement emphasises nativism and tighter immigration controls. Abroad, it questions the value of the post-war order that Washington itself built. That order had allowed US allies in Europe and Asia to prosper under American security guarantees and open markets. But it also produced China’s meteoric rise, enabling Beijing to become a peer competitor. Washington’s resentment is now driving a more unilateral, protectionist, and confrontational strategy.

Yet the Cold War analogy only partly fits. The struggle between the US and the Soviet Union was waged between two systems that were fundamentally separate, with little economic interdependence. The Soviet bloc’s command economy could not keep pace with the dynamism of capitalism and collapsed under its own inefficiencies. China is a different kind of challenger.

Since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, Beijing has combined one-party authoritarian rule with state-directed capitalism. The results were staggering: three decades of near double-digit growth, a manufacturing revolution, and the emergence of global Chinese firms in sectors from telecommunications to electric vehicles. Unlike the Soviet Union, China has embedded itself deeply in the global economy, making complete decoupling with the US impractical.

Instead, US companies and others in Europe now pursue “de-risking” — a selective disentangling of supply chains in strategic sectors such as semiconductors, critical minerals, and artificial intelligence, while leaving other forms of economic integration intact. For many countries, this balancing act reflects necessity. China is both a formidable rival and an indispensable trading partner. The world is therefore entering neither a full globalisation nor a full decoupling, but something in between.

At the heart of the contest is not just power but narrative. The US sees itself as the rightful guarantor of global order, the natural product of its “manifest destiny” — a belief in primacy that stretches back to the early 19th century. China, meanwhile, sees itself as reclaiming the greatness of its own through a “manifest resurgence”, Mr Xi’s vision of “national rejuvenation” after two centuries of humiliation and subjugation.

Both narratives carry entitlement and inevitability. The US will not cede its top position without a fight, whereas China this time will not be denied its rightful place. Each side views the other with suspicion. Washington believes Beijing has gained unfair advantages by copying technology and bending rules, while Beijing believes the US will seek to block its rise no matter what.

Such mistrust extends to public opinion. Polls show large majorities in both societies view the other unfavourably, even without direct personal contact. Even if leaders reached a pragmatic bargain, nationalist sentiment on both sides would undercut it.

Yet a full-blown military conflict and a nuclear Armageddon remain unlikely between the two sides, as deterrence is still working. But the spectre of a limited conventional war is not implausible. Taiwan remains the most combustible flashpoint, not only for its symbolism in Chinese nationalism but also for its central role in the global semiconductor industry. The South China Sea is another arena of danger, where US treaty obligations to the Philippines could transform a skirmish into a full-blooded crisis. In such volatile settings, accidents or miscalculations could escalate quickly.

For Southeast Asia, the stakes could not be higher. A US-China “grand bargain” that carves up spheres of influence would reduce regional autonomy. An outright conflict would devastate trade-dependent economies and destabilise security. The most realistic hope is a managed rivalry that is tense, competitive, and sometimes confrontational, but short of open war.

History’s warnings are sobering. Great-power clashes have repeatedly drawn smaller states into unavoidable choice and conflict. Yet history also points to alternatives. Europe, once the world’s most war-prone continent, has transformed itself into a zone of economic integration and relative peace, despite facing Russian aggression on its doorstep. As the European Union remains cohesive, its success shows that conflict is not inevitable and that cooperative frameworks can endure. The EU’s example demonstrates that cycles of conflict can be broken if states commit to cooperation, restraint, and shared rules and institutions.

The US-China contest is fundamentally about whose vision of global order will prevail. Will it be the US’s commitment to preserving its primacy or China’s determination to restore its centrality. Both sides feel entitled, both are unwilling to yield, and both are shaping the choices of other nations for decades to come. For Southeast Asia and much of the wider world, the challenge is to avoid being trampled as these giants collide. For Washington and Beijing, the task is to find a way to compete without catastrophe.