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The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has demanded an immediate reduction in petrol prices, a nationwide wage award, and the prompt commencement of negotiations for a new national minimum wage. The union warned that escalating living costs have severely eroded the purchasing power of Nigerian workers.

In an Independence Day statement titled ‘Our Hope Depends on the Choices We Make and the Actions We Take’, Joe Ajaero NLC President stated on Wednesday that these measures are essential as citizens continue to grapple with surging transportation, food, rent, and education expenses.

The union directly attributed the cost-of-living crisis to the steep rise in fuel prices following the removal of the petrol subsidy in 2023. Ajaero noted that petrol now sells at N1,430 per litre or higher in major cities, and at significantly elevated rates in remote regions. This surge in fuel costs continues to drive up general living expenses while nominal wages remain stagnant.

The NLC urged the Federal Government to address the direct transmission of fuel costs to transport and broader economic sectors, warning that failure to break this inflationary chain would render any relief efforts futile.

The union also requested the immediate implementation of a nationwide wage award for federal, state, and local government employees. Describing the measure as a critical intervention against declining real incomes rather than a gesture of charity, the NLC highlighted the Federal Government’s failure to fully deliver on past commitments.

This demand stems from the October 2023 agreement between the Federal Government and organised labour, which outlined a N35,000 monthly wage award for federal workers and recommended similar relief at state and local levels.

The NLC further criticised the government for failing to fully implement the tax relief measures agreed upon in the October 2023 Memorandum of Understanding. It called for the immediate constitution of a tripartite committee to formulate and pass legislation for a new wage standard for 2027 before the end of the year.

Although President Bola Tinubu approved the current N70,000 national minimum wage in July 2024 with a provision for a three-year review cycle, the union argued that inflation had already undermined the value of the wage prior to its implementation.

In addition to wage demands, the NLC called for reduced governance costs, enhanced transparency in public spending, and expanded investment in roads, healthcare, and education. Ajaero stated that official extravagance remains unacceptable while workers are asked to endure financial austerity.

The union raised concerns regarding the allocation of funds saved from the petrol subsidy removal. Despite initial promises that the policy would free up resources for infrastructure and social services, the NLC noted that fuel prices have multiplied while public infrastructure remains deficient.

The October 2023 agreement specified that subsidy-related savings would support wage adjustments, tax incentives, compressed natural gas (CNG) buses, and other cushioning interventions.

The NLC also criticised Nigeria’s continued dependence on imported refined petroleum products despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, calling for urgent investment to boost domestic refining capacity alongside broader social welfare improvements.

Addressing social stability, the NLC highlighted youth unemployment and forced migration, urging the government to create tangible economic opportunities to discourage perilous journeys across the Sahara and the Mediterranean.

The union also linked widespread insecurity to economic decline, noting that persistent violence continues to disrupt agriculture, education, and healthcare. It emphasised that poverty, unemployment, and insecurity are interconnected challenges requiring equitable resource distribution.

Looking toward the 2027 general elections, the NLC cautioned against voter intimidation and divisive political rhetoric. The union announced it will utilise its Workers’ Charter to evaluate political candidates and policies, asserting that organised labour will not be treated as a disposable electoral tool.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate from 26.5% to 23% is more than a monetary policy adjustment. It is a signal that the conversation may be shifting from stabilisation to growth.

For many of the last few years, policymakers have been preoccupied with restoring macroeconomic stability. Inflationary pressures, exchange rate distortions, foreign exchange reforms and declining investor confidence demanded a firm policy response. In that environment, restrictive monetary policy was both necessary and inevitable.

Today, the economic landscape is beginning to change.

Inflation has moderated from 24.48% in January 2025 to 15.39% in August 2026.

External reserves have strengthened from approximately $39.7 billion to over $54 billion, while confidence in the direction of economic policy has gradually improved. These developments do not suggest that Nigeria’s challenges have disappeared, but they do indicate that a foundation of stability is being rebuilt.

The question now is whether that stability can be translated into growth.

Lower interest rates alone do not create economic expansion. Economies grow when businesses invest, when entrepreneurs expand capacity, and when capital flows into productive sectors. This is why the next phase of Nigeria’s economic journey must focus on capital formation.

Nigeria requires deeper investment across manufacturing, infrastructure, agriculture, technology, energy and housing. While gross fixed capital formation stood at approximately ?60.5 trillion in 2024, significantly greater levels of investment will be required to unlock the country’s growth potential and accelerate job creation. Achieving this will require more than public spending. It will require private capital operating within efficient and trusted financial markets.

This is where the capital market becomes critical.

The Nigerian capital market has demonstrated its ability to mobilise long-term capital. The market has delivered approximately 60% year-to-date growth, with total market capitalisation expanding to about ?163 trillion. Beyond the numbers, this reflects increasing investor confidence in the market’s ability to finance enterprise, support business expansion and create wealth.

The significance of the current moment is further highlighted by landmark transactions such as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO, which has the potential to raise approximately ?2.15 trillion. Transactions of this scale demonstrate what is possible when capital markets function effectively, connecting savings with productive investment opportunities while broadening economic participation.

For investors, this is not simply a period to react to changing interest rates. It is a period to reassess long-term strategy, diversification and portfolio positioning. For businesses, it is an opportunity to prepare for a potentially more supportive financing environment. For policymakers, it is a reminder that monetary easing alone is insufficient. Sustainable growth will require fiscal discipline, regulatory certainty, infrastructure development and continued policy consistency.

Ultimately, Nigeria’s future will not be determined by the level of interest rates alone. It will be determined by our ability to convert improving macroeconomic conditions into investment, productivity, enterprise growth and job creation.

Encouragingly, the economy expanded by 3.89% in the first quarter of 2026, suggesting that the foundations for the next phase of growth are already being laid.

Air Peace, has further enhanced its premium travel offering with the introduction of a complimentary airport pick-up service for eligible passengers travelling in First Class and Business Class on its London routes.

The new pick-up service complements the airline’s existing complimentary airport drop-off offering and is delivered in partnership with SIMPLAA, providing customers with a seamless end-to-end travel experience.

With this enhancement, eligible passengers can now enjoy premium transfers from their homes, offices or preferred locations to the airport before departure, as well as onward transfers upon arrival. The service is available in Lagos, Abuja, Heathrow and Gatwick, ensuring convenience across both Nigeria and the United Kingdom.

Speaking on the initiative, Nowel Ngala, the Air Peace, Chief Commercial Officer, stated ‘At Air Peace, we remain committed to continuously improving the travel experience for our customers. The addition of the complimentary pick-up service reflects our dedication to providing comfort, convenience and world-class service beyond the flight itself. Through our partnership with SIMPLAA, we are creating a seamless journey from doorstep to destination.’

Under the service offering, First Class passengers are entitled to complimentary transfers of up to 70 miles from Heathrow or Gatwick, while Business Class passengers enjoy coverage of up to 60 miles. In Nigeria, eligible passengers can enjoy transfers of up to 60 kilometres in Abuja and 40 kilometres in Lagos.

Passengers travelling on eligible tickets booked from 1 October 2026 will receive an email notification with a link to activate their rides, confirm their pick-up and drop-off locations, and enjoy a smooth and hassle-free journey.

This initiative further reinforces Air Peace’s commitment to innovation and customer-centric services while strengthening its position as a leading carrier connecting Nigeria to key international destinations.

Customers can book through the Air Peace website, the Air Peace mobile app, accredited travel agencies and all major booking platforms worldwide.

The West African Examinations Council (WAEC) has appointed Nigerian Amos Dangut as its new registrar/chief executive officer for a five-year tenure, from October 2026 to September 2031; he succeeds Pateh Bah of the Republic of The Gambia.

Demianus Ojijcogu, the head of public affairs at WAEC headquarters, Accra, Ghana, made this known on Friday, October 2, in a statement made available to BusinessDay.

Born on October 2, 1967, Dangut completed his basic education and furthered his studies. He earned a Bachelor of Agriculture (Animal Production) (1991), a Master of Science (Animal Science) (1994), a Doctor of Philosophy (Animal Science) (2017), and a Master of Education (Administration and Planning) (2020).

His professional career in education began in 1994, when he took up employment with St. Louis College, Jos, where he served as an examiner with the West African Examinations Council (WAEC). Subsequently, he joined WAEC in 1998.

An astute Test Developer and Administrator, he has within space of time served in various capacities, namely, Assistant Registrar/Subject Officer, Test Development Division, WAEC, Ogba, Lagos (July, 1998 January, 2005); Senior Assistant Registrar/Head of Examinations Security and Deputy to the Branch Controller, Uyo Branch Office (January, 2005 – January, 2008); Senior Assistant Registrar/Head of Examinations Security and Deputy to the Branch Controller, Bauchi Branch Office (January, 2008 December, 2011); Senior Assistant Registrar/Branch Controller, Yola Branch office (December, 2011 January, 2019); Deputy Registrar/Controller, Post Examinations Department (January, 2019 October, 2020); Deputy Registrar/Zonal Coordinator, Ikeja Zonal Office (October, 2020 to August 2023); Deputy Registrar/HNO’s Office (August 2023-October 2023).

Dangut was appointed the head of national office of WAEC, Nigeria, on October 2, 2023, a position he held until he assumed office as the 14th registrar to council on October 1, 2026. Council, the international governing board of WAEC, ratified his appointment as registrar to council at its 74th Annual Meeting held in Accra, Ghana, in March 2026.

He is well-skilled and versatile in test development, test administration, and branch and zonal office management. For more than two decades, he has leveraged Information and Communications Technology to innovatively improve processes in test development, post-test activities, and test administration.

Throughout his career, Dangut has demonstrated integrity, transparency, diligence, and a strong commitment to service. These qualities were recognised in the commendation he received from the Nigeria Examinations Committee for his handling of examination matters from 2000 to 2006, and in the Award for Meritorious Service presented by the Ondo State government and Akoko South Local Government during his NYSC service.

Dangut, as Head of the National Office, served on the governing boards of the Nigerian Educational Research and Development Council (NERDC), the Joint Universities Preliminary Examinations Board (JUPEB), the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB), and the Grange Educational Foundation. He also represented the Council in education policy forums, including the Joint Consultative Committee on Education and the National Council on Education.

During his tenure as Head of National Office, he championed innovations to strengthen examination delivery, security, integrity, and efficiency. These included rolling out Computer- Based WASSCE, serialising question papers, and introducing a Digital Electronic Marking System. He also oversaw tools and services such as the Digital Certificate Portal, WAEC E-Study Platform, Digital Records Archive, and Systems for Examination Logistics, Timetable Management, and Monitoring Examiners’ Attendance.

Dangut is an astute scholar with publications in both international and national journals. He has also presented numerous keynote and other papers at international and national conferences/fora.

He is presently the Regional Representative of the West African Sub-region on the Executive Board of the Association for Educational Assessment in Africa (AEAA).

Dr. Dangut relishes swimming, tennis, farming, and spending time with his lovely wife and children. He is a Fellow of the Science Teachers Association of Nigeria (STAN) and an active member of the Nigeria Institute of Management (NIM).

The Lagos state government,through its Office of Diaspora Affairs, has partnered with Lagos state university to offer a 50 percent tuition scholarship to students admitted into the university’s newly established Master of Diaspora and Migration Studies programme for the 2025/2026 academic session.

The joint initiative aims to build specialized institutional capacity in migration governance, diaspora engagement, and regional policy development.

The academic framework follows the approval of the proposal by the LASU Senate and the official establishment of the Centre for Diaspora and Migration Studies.

Jermaine Sanwo-Olu, PhD., executive secretary of the Lagos State Office of Diaspora Affairs, noted that the programme and the accompanying Centre were developed in collaboration with LASU during his doctoral studies to create structured channels for diaspora contribution.

‘The initiative reflects Lagos state’s commitment to building stronger institutional structures for engaging its diaspora and responding strategically to emerging migration realities,’ Sanwo-Olu stated. ‘For Lagos, diaspora engagement and migration are not peripheral issues. They are central to our development ambitions. We are looking at how we can better harness the knowledge, skills, investments, networks and global connections of Lagosians and Nigerians across the world, while also strengthening our capacity to understand and respond to migration trends’

‘This Centre will provide the research, policy and knowledge platform required to move that agenda forward’, he noted.

Sanwo-Olu explained that the 50 percent tuition support is designed to widen access to specialized training in an area critical to global development.

Admission is open to graduates, academics, government officials, diplomats, development and humanitarian professionals, diaspora affairs officers, and practitioners across governance, maritime affairs, heritage, and the blue economy.

Candidates must possess at least a second-class lower degree or its equivalent in a relevant discipline, with relevant professional experience offering an advantage. Eligible applicants will be selected through a formal screening process.

Ibiyemi Olayunji-Bello, former LASU vice-chancellor, highlighted the capacity of the initiative to bridge the gap between academic research and actionable policy outcomes in human mobility and economic growth.

‘Diaspora and migration have become critical dimensions of contemporary development, with far-reaching implications for education, investment, innovation, human capital and international relations,’ Olatunji-Bello stated. ‘The proposed Centre provides an important opportunity for LASU to bring its academic expertise to bear on these issues while creating a platform where research can translate into practical policy and development outcomes.’

The full-time postgraduate programme spans three semesters and requires a minimum of 36 credit units. Its multidisciplinary curriculum draws from history, sociology, law, and economics, covering diaspora identity, migration governance, displacement management, labor migration, human trafficking, and urban mobility.

The Public Investment Corporation’s assets under management came close to R4 trillion in February before the Middle East conflict triggered a sharp sell-off in global markets, wiping more than R300 billion ($18.13 billion) from its portfolio in a month.

According to a BusinessDay South Africa report, PIC, the biggest investor on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, reported assets of R3.65 trillion at the end of March, its financial year-end, up about R609 billion from the previous year. Business Day South Africa reported that the asset manager’s portfolio had reached R3.958 trillion in February, putting it within reach of the R4 trillion mark before the decline.

Patrick Dlamini, PIC CEO, said the fall followed heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which also affected South African financial markets after the JSE had recorded strong gains following the 2024 general election and the formation of the Government of National Unity.

‘By February 2026, total assets under management had reached R3.958 trillion and were approaching the historic R4-trillion mark. It then declined sharply by over R300bn following heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,’ Dlamini said, according to the report.

‘Overall, while the domestic economy has shown some tentative stabilisation, the outlook remains highly uncertain. The interaction between global energy prices, the exchange rate and domestic inflation will be central in shaping economic outcomes, with risks remaining tilted to the downside,’ Dlamini said.

He said the changing global and domestic macroeconomic environment would continue to shape the PIC’s investment strategy, portfolio positioning and risk management.

‘External shocks translate directly into risks and opportunities for long-term value creation,’ Dlamini said. ‘The PIC’s mandate requires balancing financial performance with socio-economic outcomes, ensuring that investment decisions contribute to resilience, transformation and inclusive development.’

Benue State residents, including political office holders, have rejected a Federal Government’s policy focusing on the National Communal Ranching Programme, describing it as land grabbing plan in disguise.

Samuel Iorfa, a farmer from Guma LGA who is currently displaced in Makurdi, told BusinessDay that the ranching plan is unacceptable at this time.

‘Alia has brought back the Benue of our dream. Workers are paid, roads are working. But this ranching programme from President Tinubu is land grabbing in disguise. How can you bring cattle ranching to our land when we the owners of the land are still in IDP camps? Let us return home first,’ Samuel said.

He added that the programme contradicts the existing Open Grazing Prohibition and Ranches Establishment Law, 2017, which already provides a framework for ranching in Benue.

Terna Andura, Special Assistant to Governor Hyacinth Alia on Community Relations and Engagement, who also spoke to Business Day as part of celebration marking Nigeria’s Independent, commended Governor Alia for his doggedness against all odds which had brought back the Benue of our dream.

‘I want to commend the Governor for taking Benue out of the shame of infrastructural backwardness, what the Governor did in Three years of his administration is more that other Governors in Eight years, and as the Country celebrates it 66th birthday, I want to also use this opportunity to applaud President Tinubu for his love for the country and Benue State’

Other residents echoed Orsember’s concerns, saying that while infrastructure and regular salaries are commendable, the high cost of Premium Motor Spirit has eroded purchasing power and made small businesses unprofitable.

On the ranching issue, residents insisted that Benue is not against ranching, but against any federal imposition that appears to take over their ancestral lands under the guise of livestock development.

They called on the Federal Government to reconsider including Benue among the six pilot states Adamawa, Benue, Kaduna, Kano, Plateau and the Federal Capital Territory for the programme.

They demanded that security be restored first, IDPs be returned home, homes rebuilt and victims compensated before any discussion on national livestock settlements.

The rejection aligns with the position of the Laity Council of the Catholic Diocese of Makurdi, which recently said over 181 Churches and Pastoral Units have been shut down and over 100 Churches burnt, with the faithful ‘ranched in IDP camps like cattle.’

As Nigeria celebrates 66 years of independence on Thursday, Benue’s message is clear: The state has seen progress under Alia, the Federal Government has supported on security and infrastructure, but Three things must be addressed – bring down PMS price to ease hardship, end insecurity and shelve the ranching plan which residents describe as land grabbing in disguise.

For many in Benue, true independence will be when a displaced farmer in Gwer-West, Guma, Logo or Ukum can safely return to his farm without fear, and when a trader like Orsember can afford fuel to move her goods to market.

Introduction: Nigeria’s Rising Debt Profile.

Nigeria’s rising public debt has become one of the most significant fiscal challenges confronting the country. On September 25, 2026, the Debt Management Office (DMO) reported that Nigeria’s total public debt had reached ?166.79 trillion as of June 30, 2026. The figure represents a substantial increase from the ?49.85 trillion debt stock recorded when the current administration assumed office in May 2023. In nominal terms, Nigeria’s public debt has therefore more than tripled in just over three years. The latest figures also indicate that public debt increased by ?7.44 trillion, or approximately 4.7 percent, between March and June 2026, rising from ?159.35 trillion to ?166.79 trillion. Compared with June 2025, when the debt stock stood at ?152.40 trillion, the increase is approximately ?14.39 trillion, representing a year-on-year rise of 9.4 percent.

Nigeria’s Total Public Debt Profile as of June 30, 2026. Source: Debt Management Office (DMO) Release, September 25, 2026. Domestic: N91.59tn (54.9%), External: N75.20tn (45.1%), Total: N166.79tn ($120.93bn at N1,379.18/$1).

Measured in United States dollars, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at approximately $120.93 billion as of June 2026, compared with $99.66 billion a year earlier. The rapid growth of public debt raises questions that extend beyond the size of the debt itself. The more important questions concern how the debt is being accumulated, the cost of servicing it, the productive capacity created through borrowing, and whether future generations will inherit sufficient economic capacity to support the obligations being created today.

Anatomy of the ?166.79 Trillion Debt

The composition of Nigeria’s public debt provides an important starting point for understanding the country’s fiscal position. According to the DMO, domestic debt accounted for ?91.59 trillion, representing approximately 54.91 percent of the total debt stock. External debt stood at ?75.20 trillion, representing approximately 45.09 percent. Domestic debt has also been growing faster than external debt. Year-on-year, domestic debt increased by approximately 13.7 percent, compared with an external debt increase of about 4.6 percent.

Figure 2: Nigeria’s Debt Service Burden 2022-2026

Source: Budget Office of the Federation and DMO Q2 2026 Report. Debt service to revenue ratio peaked at 80% in 2023 and remains at 69% in 2026. Rising Debt Implications. What this chart proves:

– Left side: Federal revenue is growing, but debt service is growing faster

– Right side: Nigeria is spending 69% of revenue on debt repayment in 2026, far above World Bank safe threshold of 40%.

The implication of this is that, for every N100 earned, N69 goes to creditors, putting debt service burden at 69% of all revenue generated, leaving almost nothing for growth and running the country.

The Federal Government accounts for the overwhelming majority of the debt burden. Its obligations stood at approximately ?152.77 trillion, consisting of ?86.99 trillion in domestic debt and ?65.77 trillion in external debt.

The States and Federal Capital Territory collectively accounted for approximately ?14.01 trillion. These figures demonstrate that Nigeria’s debt challenge is predominantly a federal fiscal issue, although its consequences extend to state governments, businesses, households and the wider economy.

Why Is Nigeria’s Debt Rising?

Several interconnected factors explain the continued expansion of Nigeria’s public debt.

Exchange Rate Revaluation: One important factor is the naira value of Nigeria’s external debt. External obligations denominated in foreign currencies must be converted into naira when calculating the country’s total debt stock. At an exchange rate of approximately ?1,379.18 to the US dollar, depreciation of the naira significantly increases the naira value of existing foreign-currency obligations, even where no new borrowing has occurred. This creates an important distinction between borrowing and debt accumulation. A government can record an increase in the naira value of its debt partly because of exchange-rate movements rather than because it has borrowed an equivalent amount of new money. Nevertheless, the economic consequence remains significant because the government ultimately requires more naira revenue to meet foreign-currency obligations. This chart explains why debt jumped without new borrowing. Blue line = External debt in USD (stable $43.7bn to $54.5bn). Red line = Same debt in Naira (explosive N20.1tn to N75.2tn). From May 2023 (N460/$1) to Dec 2024 (N1,535/$1), Naira devalued ~200%. Result: ~70% of the N49.4tn Naira increase (May 2023-Dec 2024) is pure revaluation, not new borrowing. June 2023 alone added N13.5tn without borrowing a single dollar after FX float. Source: DMO, CBN.

‘While Nigeria’s external debt in USD terms rose modestly from $43.7bn (May 2023) to $54.5bn (June 2026), a 24.7% increase, the Naira equivalent quadrupled from N20.1tn to N75.2tn, a 274% increase. The difference of N35tn is the phantom debt – debt that appears because the Naira collapsed from N460/$1 to N1,535/$1 after the June 2023 FX reform. This revaluation accounts for ~70% of the Naira increase, meaning Nigeria appears more indebted in Naira but did not actually borrow that money.’

2. Persistent Fiscal Deficits: Nigeria has continued to operate with substantial fiscal deficits. When government expenditure exceeds revenue, the gap must be financed through borrowing or other forms of deficit financing. Borrowing can be economically justified when it finances infrastructure, productive capacity and investments capable of generating future economic returns. The concern arises when borrowing increasingly supports recurrent expenditure without generating sufficient productive assets or additional revenue capacity. A debt-financed economy therefore becomes sustainable only when borrowed resources contribute meaningfully to economic expansion and the government’s future ability to repay.

This chart explains why Nigeria’s debt reached N166.79tn. It also shows Nigeria has not had a balanced budget in over a decade – every year since 2016, government spends almost double what it earns. The gap must be borrowed, which explains why debt tripled from N49.85tn in 2023 to N166.79tn in 2026. Green = Revenue, Red = Expenditure, Blue line = Deficit (negative). Revenue grew from N2.9tn (2016) to N14.2tn (2026), but expenditure grew faster from N5.8tn to N39.8tn. Deficit widened by 783% from -N2.9tn to -N25.6tn. Every deficit is financed by borrowing, directly driving the N166.79tn debt stock (DMO, 2026). Source: Budget Office of the Federation.

3. Rising Debt-Service Costs: The cost of servicing existing debt is perhaps more concerning than the headline debt figure itself. Domestic debt service alone reached approximately ?2.14 trillion in the second quarter of 2026. High domestic interest rates mean that new borrowing can become increasingly expensive, particularly when a significant portion of government financing comes from the domestic capital market. This creates a potentially damaging cycle: government borrows to finance deficits, debt service consumes a larger share of government revenue, fewer resources remain available for investment, and the government may then require additional borrowing to finance its obligations.

The Debt-Service Trap

The greatest danger facing Nigeria is not necessarily that the country has reached a point of immediate insolvency. Rather, it is the possibility of entering a prolonged debt-service trap. When an increasingly large proportion of government revenue is committed to servicing debt, fiscal flexibility becomes severely restricted. Nigeria already faces significant pressure in this regard, with debt-service obligations consuming more than 60 percent of retained government revenue according to recent assessments. This has serious consequences for public investment. Every naira directed towards debt service is a naira that cannot simultaneously be directed towards roads, electricity, education, healthcare, security, research, industrial development or other productive investments.

This chart shows why Nigeria can’t develop. Blue line = Debt service as % of revenue. Dotted orange = World Bank 40% threshold. Dotted red = IMF 60% danger zone. Nigeria breached 40% since 2016, breached 60% since 2020. Peak crisis 2022-2023: 79%-89% of all revenue went to debt service alone. 2026 projected: 69% still in trap. Bottom left: For every N100 revenue in 2026, N69 goes to creditors, only N31 left for schools, hospitals, roads – less than N10 for capital spending. Source: Federal Budget. Here is your debt service trap picture.

This chart proves Nigeria is in a classic debt service trap – revenue growth from N2.9tn to N14.2tn is overwhelmed by debt service growth from N1.2tn to N9.8tn. The country remains 29 percentage points above World Bank sustainable threshold and 9 points above IMF danger zone even in 2026. The issue is therefore not simply whether Nigeria can borrow more. The more important question is whether the country can continue borrowing while maintaining sufficient fiscal capacity to invest in the foundations of future economic growth.

The Intergenerational Cost

Public borrowing transfers financial obligations into the future. Debt itself is not necessarily harmful. Most successful economies borrow at different stages of their development. The critical distinction is between productive and unproductive borrowing. Borrowing to construct infrastructure, expand energy capacity, strengthen transportation systems, develop human capital or establish industries can create assets that generate economic value for decades. Borrowing primarily to finance consumption, recurrent expenditure or persistent budget shortfalls presents a different challenge. When future generations inherit large financial obligations without corresponding productive assets, the result is an intergenerational transfer of economic burden. Nigeria must therefore move beyond asking how much it can borrow and begin asking what each borrowed naira produces.

2026 snapshot: N166.79tn total debt = N743,000 per Nigerian (223m population), N9.8tn annual debt service. Interest at 10% = N16.6tn per year forever unless repaid. Debt clock ticks N31,000 per second. Timeline: Child born 2026 will still pay until 2060 – domestic debt matures ~8 years (2034), external ~15 years (2041), Eurobonds 25-34 years (2051-2060).

Opportunity cost: N9.8tn service could build 2,000 health centres, 5,000 schools, 2,000km roads instead. As the quote says: ‘We are borrowing from our children who cannot yet vote.’ Source: DMO, CBN, illustrative based on 2026 figures.

This shows the Future Cost of Debt. The true cost is not N166.79tn today, but the N16.6tn annual interest future generations must pay until 2060. A child born in Lagos today will be 34 years old, working and paying taxes, still servicing debt borrowed before they could speak.

Exchange-Rate Vulnerability.

Nigeria’s external debt also exposes the country to exchange-rate risk. When the naira depreciates, the domestic cost of servicing foreign-currency obligations increases. This creates an additional pressure on government finances at precisely the moment when currency depreciation may already be increasing inflation, production costs and household hardship. A country with substantial foreign-currency obligations therefore needs sufficient foreign-exchange earnings and reserves to manage these liabilities. Nigeria’s dependence on oil revenues makes this challenge more complicated. Although crude oil remains an important source of foreign exchange, fluctuations in global oil prices, production levels and international energy markets can directly affect the government’s capacity to meet its obligations. Diversifying the productive economy and expanding non-oil exports are therefore not merely development objectives. They are also components of responsible debt management.

6. The Risk to States and the Wider Economy.

Although the Federal Government accounts for the majority of Nigeria’s public debt, sub-national governments cannot be isolated from the consequences. States depend heavily on allocations and internally generated revenue to finance their obligations. Rising national debt service can reduce the resources available for transfers and development expenditure. At the same time, high domestic interest rates affect businesses and households.

Lagos N1.20tn highest (red), Jigawa N1.04bn lowest (dark green). Total States Debt N4.59tn. Source: DMO June 30, 2026. Lagos, FCT, Rivers hold 43.27% of all state debt (Economic Confidential, 2026).

When government borrowing absorbs a significant portion of available domestic capital, private-sector borrowers may face higher financing costs. This can discourage investment, constrain business expansion and limit job creation. The relationship between public debt and private-sector growth therefore deserves greater attention. A fiscal strategy that stabilises government finances at the expense of productive private investment may ultimately weaken the very economic base required to sustain public revenue

– Total States + FCT domestic debt: N4.59 trillion

– 4 states hold ~50%: Lagos (N1.20tn), Delta (N369.30bn), FCT (N358.79bn), Rivers (N354.64bn) account for 49.5% of all state debt

– Top 10 debtors: Lagos N1.20tn, Delta N369.30bn, FCT N358.79bn, Rivers N354.64bn, Edo N214.93bn, Ogun N189.05bn, Bauchi N157.35bn, Niger N140bn, Cross River N130.01bn, Benue N112.32bn

– Least indebted: Jigawa N1.04bn (lowest), Ondo N6.16bn, Anambra N9.62bn, Ebonyi N11.38bn, Katsina N13.78bn

7. What Nigeria Must Do

Nigeria’s debt challenge requires a comprehensive fiscal response rather than a single solution.

First, government revenue must increase sustainably. This requires improving tax administration, reducing leakages, expanding the formal economy and creating conditions under which businesses can grow and generate taxable income.

Second, borrowing must become more closely tied to productive investment. Every major borrowing program should be evaluated according to its expected economic return, employment impact, revenue potential and contribution to national productivity.

Third, Nigeria should prioritise concessional and longer-term financing where appropriate. Lower-cost financing with longer maturities can reduce immediate pressure on government finances.

Fourth, the country requires stronger fiscal rules and greater transparency around borrowing. Citizens should be able to clearly understand how much is being borrowed, why it is being borrowed, what the funds will finance and what measurable economic outcomes are expected.

Finally, Nigeria must expand its productive capacity. Sustainable debt management ultimately depends on economic growth. A larger, more productive economy creates a broader revenue base and makes existing debt obligations easier to manage.

– Lagos State alone with N1.20 trillion domestic debt owes 1,153 times more than Jigawa State with N1.04 billion, yet Jigawa has one of the lowest IGRs in Nigeria. This shows debt concentration is not about development need but about market access. Lagos can borrow because banks trust its IGR of N1.67 trillion in H1 2026, while Jigawa cannot.

Conclusion

Nigeria is not yet insolvent, but the trajectory of its public debt demands serious attention. The ?166.79 trillion debt stock is not simply a large number. It represents a growing set of financial obligations that must ultimately be supported by the productive capacity of the Nigerian economy.

The central issue is therefore not whether Nigeria should borrow at all. Borrowing can be an essential instrument of development when it finances investments that generate economic value greater than their cost.

The real danger lies in borrowing without sufficient productive transformation. Nigeria cannot borrow its way permanently out of structural fiscal weakness. The country must increase revenue, reduce waste, strengthen institutions, improve productivity, diversify its economy and ensure that borrowed resources create measurable economic value. The debt mountain can still be managed. But doing so will require fiscal discipline, transparency and a clear national commitment to transforming borrowed capital into productive capacity. The responsibility is not only to manage today’s obligations, but to ensure that the next generation inherits an economy capable of carrying them.

The Oyo State Governorship Candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Sharafadeen Alli, has made a passionate appeal for the unconditional release of prospective National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members from Oyo State who were abducted in Imo State on Thursday while travelling to the NYSC Orientation Camp in Abia State.

Alli, in a statement on the weekend, described the incident as deeply disturbing, noting that the young graduates were only embarking on their national service and posed no threat to anyone.

‘I appeal to those holding these young Nigerians to release them unconditionally. They are innocent graduates, sons and daughters of families who are now living in unbearable pain, fear and anxiety.

‘The NYSC was established to promote national unity and integration. These young people should not become victims while answering the call to serve their country,’ he said.

The APC governorship candidate expressed solidarity with the affected families, saying he shares their anguish as a parent. He urged security agencies to intensify efforts to locate and rescue the victims safely.

Alli also called for stronger security measures along major inter-state routes, particularly those frequently used by prospective corps members and other travellers, to prevent similar incidents.

He said no Nigerian should have to fear for their life while travelling for education, employment or national service.

‘Those responsible must recognise the sanctity of human life and spare these young Nigerians. Their families are waiting for them to return home safely,’ Alli added.

He prayed for safe return of all the abducted prospective corps members and urged the affected families to remain calm while security agencies work to secure their release.

Emem Coffie, governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Akwa Ibom State, has urged Nigerian youths not to abandon education in pursuit of quick wealth, stressing that formal education remains critical to professional development, specialisation and national growth.

Coffie, a said on Wednesday that the growing perception among some young people that education was a waste of time could undermine efforts to develop the country’s human capital.

He argued that while university education should not be regarded as the only route to success, young people needed a solid educational or vocational foundation to acquire the knowledge and skills required to become productive and self-reliant.

According to him, academic knowledge provides the foundation upon which specialised professional skills are developed, particularly in technical fields where practical experience needs to be supported by an understanding of scientific principles.

Coffie said education had played a significant role in the development of advanced economies and should not be dismissed simply because some individuals had achieved success without attending university.

‘The truth is that engineering is probably 90 per cent from scientific theory and 10 per cent empirical.

‘The truth is that education has created a system and whether you like it or not the countries are developed today and worked with those systems and became what they are,’ he said.

He cited robotics as an example of an emerging field where a combination of formal education and specialised technical training was required.

Coffie said anyone seeking to specialise in robotics needed to first acquire basic knowledge of the sciences before progressing into relevant engineering disciplines.

‘If you want to be a robotics engineer for example you must have had an understanding of physics, chemistry, I don’t know biology has to do with medical engineering but for you to go into robotics you must have those basic understanding and then have mechanical engineering, electronics engineering, electrical engineering by the corner before you now begin to do robotics,’ he said.

The PDP candidate said his interest in education and youth development had informed his sponsorship of hundreds of students in Akwa Ibom State, Enugu and Abuja.

He said the objective was to provide young people with the foundation and support needed to identify their talents, develop their capabilities and become economically independent.

Coffie called for reforms that would enable young people to complete university education within a reasonable period, identify their talents early and begin specialising in their chosen professions without unnecessary delays.

He said early identification and development of talents could help reduce the length of time young people spend trying to establish themselves professionally before gaining recognition and accessing opportunities.

However, he stressed that the government should not adopt a university-only approach to human capital development.

According to him, vocational education, apprenticeship, entrepreneurship and other forms of skills acquisition should receive equal attention and institutional support.

‘I want to see a country where the youths are very specific in their achievements in where they are going.

‘Everybody doesn’t need to go to university, that’s why we get everybody wrong, but whatever level, whatever trade you should apply, the government should support you, train you, and make you relevant,’ he said.

Coffie said investment in education and skills acquisition would have limited impact if the economy failed to create industries and businesses capable of absorbing trained young people.

He therefore called for greater investment in industrialisation in Akwa Ibom State, arguing that the state government should identify industries with the potential to create large-scale employment and train young people to meet their manpower requirements.

He identified oil and gas, refineries, gas processing facilities and steel plants as areas that could provide significant employment opportunities if developed.

The engineer advocated apprenticeship programmes that would expose young people to the technical skills required by such industries before they entered the labour market.

He also proposed that apprentices should receive financial support during their training to encourage participation and enable them to remain in the programme.

‘You begin to prepare them, empower them to program the way they will learn such skills, and within that period pay them, even if they are doing an apprenticeship scheme, pay them during that period so that you can encourage them to participate in such,’ he said.

Coffie further called for stronger government support for small and medium-scale enterprises, particularly through access to affordable financing.

He said traders and entrepreneurs needed loans and other forms of support to expand their businesses, create jobs and contribute more substantially to the state’s economy.

He also proposed the establishment of cottage industries across Akwa Ibom’s local government areas as a means of creating employment, processing locally available raw materials and increasing household incomes.

According to him, opportunities existed in areas such as palm oil processing and the production of briquettes from palm kernel waste, which could provide raw materials for small-scale industries while reducing waste.

The PDP candidate also called for a return to what he described as Akwa Ibom’s original development master plan, arguing that successive administrations should sustain major development projects initiated by previous governments rather than abandon them when political leadership changes.

He listed the deep seaport, science park, airport, road network and power plants among projects associated with the state’s long-term development plans.

Coffie said Akwa Ibom needed to revisit its original development priorities and focus on projects capable of creating sustainable economic opportunities for residents.

He argued that infrastructure development, particularly road construction, should be accompanied by industrial and economic activities capable of creating jobs and putting incomes in the hands of residents.

‘Road construction is interesting but road construction does not put food on the table of people,’ he said.

He said his proposed development agenda, tagged ‘A New Drive Back to the Genesis’, would focus on human capital development, industrialisation, skills acquisition and support for small businesses.

According to him, the objective is to create an economic environment where residents can acquire relevant skills, secure employment or establish businesses capable of providing sustainable livelihoods.

‘When I say Genesis, let’s go back to that master plan and start to execute it all over again,’ he said.

Coffie said a development strategy centred on human capital and productive economic activity would provide young people with clearer pathways to professional and financial independence, while reducing dependence on political patronage for survival.

He maintained that government support should focus on equipping young people with education, technical skills, access to finance and opportunities to apply their abilities, rather than encouraging dependence on politicians for financial assistance.