The Anutin Charnvirakul administration appears to be entering a new phase of governance – one marked less by headline-grabbing populist initiatives than by difficult policy recalibrations. Over the past few weeks, the government has quietly delayed, suspended or softened a number of high-profile initiatives, the latest being the Commerce Ministry’s proposed 40-baht curry rice scheme.
The move has fuelled criticism that the government is retreating from its own promises and lacks confidence in its policy direction. Yet, viewed collectively, these decisions suggest a more deliberate political strategy: reducing controversy ahead of the parliamentary debate on the 2027 fiscal budget while preserving room to pursue structural reforms the administration considers more important to the country’s long-term future.
At the centre of this strategy lies a difficult political calculation. The government appears willing to absorb short-term criticism if doing so improves its chances of implementing reforms previous administrations have largely avoided.
The shelving of the 40-baht curry rice scheme is the latest example.
Originally promoted by the Ministry of Commerce as a cost-of-living relief measure, the programme immediately drew criticism from restaurant operators, economists and opposition parties. Critics questioned both its practicality and whether subsidising prepared meals represented the best use of public funds at a time when fiscal discipline is becoming increasingly important.
Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun announced she had postponed plans to seek cabinet approval for the subsidised meal scheme, saying it would be reviewed following mixed public reaction.
‘The 40-baht price was discussed at the time because it appeared to be achievable, but it was never a final price. … The objective is to provide an affordable option for people with lower incomes,’ she said.
‘When there are differing opinions like this, we need to listen first and review the proposal carefully. At this stage, we are not proceeding with it.’
The curry rice scheme is not an isolated case.
Earlier this year, the administration abandoned a controversial proposal to raise the legal threshold distinguishing methamphetamine users from traffickers after strong opposition from anti-drug agencies and law enforcement officials.
The government has also slowed the implementation of several economic initiatives while reviewing their fiscal implications. Even in areas where it remains committed, such as cannabis regulation and constitutional reform, it has adopted a more cautious approach than many supporters initially expected.
To critics, these represent policy U-turns. To government supporters, however, they demonstrate pragmatism.
Coalition governments rarely enjoy the luxury of governing exactly as they campaigned. Fiscal realities, coalition compromises and public sentiment often require adjustments. The more important question is whether those adjustments reflect indecision or strategic prioritisation.
In the case of the Anutin administration, evidence tends to point towards the latter.
While several politically attractive programmes have been delayed, the government has shown little hesitation in pursuing what is arguably its most challenging initiative: comprehensive bureaucratic reform.
Unlike suspended populist measures, civil service reform offers almost no immediate political dividend.
Instead, it risks alienating one of the most influential constituencies.
The reform programme seeks to reduce the size of the bureaucracy, gradually shrink the civil service through attrition, modernise government agencies with digital technology and artificial intelligence, and overhaul the compensation structure for future civil servants.
Perhaps its most controversial element is the decision to reduce welfare benefits for newly recruited officials while protecting the entitlements of existing employees.
For decades, the civil service has offered generous pensions, healthcare benefits and job security, making government employment attractive despite relatively modest salaries. Reform advocates argue these commitments have become fiscally unsustainable as Thailand’s ageing population places increasing pressure on public finances.
The government believes the system must evolve before those obligations become an even heavier burden on future budgets.
Politically, however, the timing could hardly be more sensitive.
Civil servants remain a highly organised and politically influential group. Any attempt to reduce benefits is almost certain to provoke resistance from professional associations and opposition parties eager to portray the reforms as an attack on public servants.
Yet the administration appears determined to press ahead. According to a source, this willingness to confront politically difficult issues could ultimately make or break the government.
Successive administrations have acknowledged the need for bureaucratic reform. Numerous committees have produced reports calling for a leaner state, digital transformation and performance-based management.
Few have moved beyond recommendations as the political costs were simply too high.
The Anutin administration appears to have concluded that delaying reform would ultimately prove more costly than implementing it.
The country is seeing slowing economic growth, rising fiscal pressures and intensifying regional competition. Government expenditure continues to be dominated by recurrent spending, particularly salaries and welfare commitments, leaving less fiscal space for infrastructure investment, education and technological upgrading.
Without reform, these structural constraints are unlikely to ease.
Government supporters say this broader economic context helps explain why the administration is willing to retreat on smaller, more symbolic initiatives while pressing ahead with measures that could fundamentally reshape the state’s long-term finances.
There is also a clear parliamentary calculation. With debate on the annual budget bill approaching, the administration has every incentive to minimise unnecessary political confrontation.
Opposition parties will almost certainly scrutinise every spending proposal, searching for examples of waste, duplication or poorly designed populist policies. Suspending controversial programmes before they become major political liabilities reduces the number of vulnerable fronts the government must defend.
It allows ministers to focus parliamentary debate on broader fiscal priorities rather than individual policy controversies.
Whether this strategy succeeds depends largely on execution.
Backtracking can easily create an impression of indecisiveness if governments fail to explain why adjustments are necessary. Frequent policy reversals also risk undermining public confidence, particularly among voters who expect campaign promises to be honoured.
The administration therefore faces the challenge of demonstrating that these changes are not signs of weakness but evidence of responsible governance, the source said.
Equally important is the implementation of bureaucratic reform itself.
Announcing structural reform is considerably easier than carrying it out. Downsizing government agencies requires careful workforce planning, retraining, investment in digital technology and sustained political commitment over many years.
If the reforms become bogged down in bureaucratic resistance or disrupt public services, the political costs could quickly outweigh any long-term gains.
Conversely, success could transform the government’s political standing.
A leaner, more efficient civil service would strengthen fiscal sustainability, improve public service delivery and boost investor confidence. Savings generated from lower long-term personnel costs could be redirected towards healthcare, education, infrastructure and economic competitiveness.
Perhaps most importantly, successful reform would allow the government to claim it had achieved what many previous administrations merely discussed, the source said.
Masterminds in sight
The local administration recruitment scandal has entered a politically sensitive phase after allegations emerged that billions of baht were delivered to a cabinet minister in connection with the recruitment process.
The allegations, made by political activist Thaikorn Polsuwan, have fuelled speculation that the investigation could eventually implicate powerful politicians believed to have orchestrated the scheme.
According to Mr Thaikorn, two people claiming to work for the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) delivered more than three billion baht to a cabinet minister in the so-called ‘white building’.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has vowed to get to the bottom of the case.
Responding to the allegations, Mr Anutin said: ‘If the investigation leads to anyone, whether a minister in the white building or the cream building, everyone must face the consequences of their actions.’
The premier’s remarks are widely seen as an attempt to reassure the public that the investigation will not stop with lower-ranking officials. However, doubts remain over whether the government is prepared to pursue those believed to be behind the alleged network.
Mr Thaikorn told the Bangkok Post that public scepticism is understandable.
He said many previous high-profile corruption investigations had failed to reach senior political figures, with only lower-ranking officials facing punishment.
However, he said the circumstances surrounding this case are different.
‘As long as the mainstream media continue to follow the case and keep pressure on the prime minister, it will become increasingly difficult for anyone to stall the investigation.
‘I believe the prime minister now has little choice but to ensure the investigation moves quickly. Senior political figures will have to look after themselves,’ he said.
The exam fraud case took a significant step forward after the Interior Ministry’s central committee for local government recruitment examinations on July 17 ordered the cancellation of the recruitment list covering 5,924 candidates whose exam results were deemed suspicious.
Speaking after the decision, Interior permanent secretary Unsit Sampuntharat said the committee had exercised its authority under the Administrative Procedure Act to revoke the recruitment list and issue a new one.
The panel reviewed the results of more than 279,000 candidates who sat the exam, out of around 400,000 applicants. Irregularities were found in the results of 5,924 candidates who had already been appointed.
Mr Thaikorn said the cancellation marked significant progress and had helped restore some public confidence that the authorities were taking the issue seriously.
The real concern, he said, is what happens next, as investigations often slow down or lose momentum once they reach the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC). Politically sensitive cases have frequently taken years to conclude.
He said public pressure must continue not only on the NACC but also on the Central Investigation Bureau (CIB) to ensure investigators pursue those behind the operation rather than stopping with operational-level suspects.
Three key suspects have been arrested by the CIB’s Crime Suppression Division under warrants issued by the Criminal Court.
Sgt Maj Pichit Thangphrom, director of the Strategy and Budget Division of Wichian Buri municipality in Phetchabun, is accused of acting as an operational leader within the alleged network. He denied the allegations and declined to give a statement to police.
Win Thanaphatcharaphokin, former head of the working group for Public Health Minister Pattana Promphat, admitted sending examination files as part of the operation. The minister denied knowing Mr Win personally.
Sataporn Thanaphatcharaphokin, Mr Win’s sister, is accused of transferring examination files to a house in Nonthaburi where examination records were allegedly manipulated.
The trio face charges including criminal association, forging official documents, concealing or destroying official documents, and unlawfully disclosing official secrets.
Mr Thaikorn said investigators should now use information obtained from the three suspects to trace both the financial trail and those who directed the alleged operation.
He said he was confident police had all the facts and knew what had happened.
‘The question now is whether they are prepared to follow the evidence all the way to the real masterminds.’
He warned that if the case ended with only the three operational suspects being prosecuted, public confidence in the government’s commitment to tackling corruption would suffer. Mr Anutin would also be unable to avoid political responsibility, he said.
‘From what the PM said, it is clear he wants the case resolved quickly. But if that does not happen, I don’t believe the public will accept him staying in office,’ Mr Thaikorn said.